W14 Dairy Update: GDT Dairy Index Rose by 2.8% while Avian Influenza Outbreak in the US Raises Concern in the Dairy Sector

Published 2024년 4월 12일

In W14 in the dairy landscape, the GDT auction held on April 2 saw a notable 2.8% surge in the dairy index, reaching USD 3,558/mt after two consecutive drops. These positive trends indicate a promising future for dairy products amid global market recovery, particularly benefiting regions like Argentina, which is facing subdued demand and consumption due to economic challenges. Conversely, an avian influenza outbreak in the US has impacted dairy cows, resulting in a temporary halt in milk production and prompting state-level restrictions on animal movement. Despite concerns affecting livestock markets and declining prices, analysts maintain optimism about consumer demand for dairy products, citing past instances where avian influenza did not significantly affect chicken or egg consumption.

Dairy Index Up 2.8% During the GDT Auction on April 2

During the 353rd auction of the Global Dairy Trade (GDT) held on April 2, the dairy index surged by 2.8%, reaching USD 3,558 per metric ton (mt), marking a rebound after two consecutive drops. Significant increases were noted in cheddar (4.1%), whole milk powder (3.4%), butter (3.1%), anhydrous milk fat (2.3%), and skim milk powder (1.4%). However, lactose and buttermilk powder experienced declines of 3.1% and 0.5%, respectively. These positive trends suggest a promising future for dairy products amid global market recovery, especially benefiting countries like Argentina, where subdued demand and consumption are linked to economic challenges and low purchasing power.

Avian Influenza Outbreak in the US Raises Concern in the Dairy Sector

An outbreak of avian influenza that resulted in the culling of approximately 80 million birds in the United States (US) over the last two years is now impacting dairy cows. This situation has led to a temporary halt in milk production in the affected regions and prompted some states to tighten restrictions on animal movement across interstate borders. The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) has confirmed cases of avian influenza in dairy herds across Texas, Kansas, New Mexico, Michigan, and Idaho in recent weeks. Fortunately, no cows have succumbed to the disease, with infections limited to older animals that exhibited mild symptoms and subsequently recovered.

On April 1, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) reported a case of a person in Texas contracting the H5N1 bird flu virus after exposure to infected dairy cows. The individual experienced only eye redness and received treatment with antiviral medication. While the CDC reassures a low risk to human health from bird flu, individuals with prolonged exposure to infected animals or environments face greater risk. The emergence of bird flu cases in dairy cows has stirred volatility in livestock markets, with futures prices on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) fluctuating in response to the news. Concerns over reduced consumer demand or potential export restrictions have led to a decline in prices in W14, although no country has yet imposed restrictions on US dairy products due to bird flu. Analysts remain optimistic about consumer demand for these products, noting that previous instances of avian influenza did not significantly impact chicken or egg consumption.