1. Weekly News

Bangladesh

Bangladesh’s Rice Output to Rise in 2025/26 MY

Bangladesh’s milled rice production will reach 37.55 million metric tons (mmt) in the 2025/26 marketing year (MY). This marks a 2.6% year-on-year (YoY) increase from the previous year’s 36.6 mmt, supported by favorable production conditions across its three growing seasons, according to the United States Department of Agriculture's (USDA) Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS). Total rice consumption is projected at 38 mmt, slightly up from 37.8 mmt in 2024/25, driven by population growth and rising feed use. To address demand and elevated domestic prices, Bangladesh reduced its rice import tariff to 2%. Imports are projected at 600 thousand metric tons (mt), down 800 thousand mt YoY due to increased production.

Japan

Japan Extends Rice Reserve Sales Due to Price Surge

The Japanese government will continue selling rice from its state strategic reserves to support consumers and stabilize prices for this dietary staple. The Prime Minister has directed authorities to release rice from the reserves monthly until summer. The third batch of 100 thousand mt will enter the market from April 21. Rice prices in Japan have surged throughout 2024 due to a poor harvest caused by natural disasters and abnormal heat while rising tourist numbers have further driven up demand. To address the price spike, the government began auctioning off rice reserves in Mar-25, with the first 150 thousand mt batch sold between March 10 and 12. Nevertheless, retail rice prices in Tokyo reflecting national trends still rose 89.6% YoY in Mar-25.

Uruguay

Uruguay Eyes Strong 2024 Rice Harvest but Faces Trade Headwinds and Price Pressure

Uruguay will achieve one of its best rice harvests in a decade in 2024, with average yields reaching 9 mt per hectare (ha). This is 10 to 15% higher than the 2024 season despite a non-record planting area of 180 thousand ha. As of W15, 70% of fields in the north and 55% nationwide had been harvested, with minimal disruption from rain. However, farmers face serious trade and pricing challenges as India’s return to global markets has driven prices down, Brazil’s 20% currency devaluation has eroded Uruguay’s competitiveness and logistics costs remain high. With 95% of the crop destined for export due to low domestic consumption, profitability now hinges on the government’s provisional price decision expected in mid-May-25, which many fear will fall well below last year’s USD 620 to 630/mt range.

2. Weekly Pricing

Weekly Rice Pricing Important Exporters (USD/kg)

Yearly Change in Rice Pricing Important Exporters (W15 2024 to W15 2025) 

India

​In W15, India's wholesale rice prices decreased by 3.03% week-on-week (WoW), falling to USD 0.64 per kilogram (kg) from USD 0.66/kg in W14. This decline is primarily due to a significant increase in domestic supply resulting from a record-breaking 2024/25 harvest, reaching approximately 135.5 to 138 mmt, marking a substantial rise from the previous year's output of 130 mmt. Moreover, the Indian government's decision to lift the export ban on white rice and reduce the export duty on parboiled rice has led to increased market liquidity and downward pressure on prices. While domestic demand remains steady, the supply surge and the easing of export restrictions have contributed to the observed price correction.​

Vietnam

In W15, Vietnamese rice prices decreased by 1.64% WoW and month-on-month (MoM) to USD 0.60/kg, driven by supply and demand dynamics, with low supply and slow buying and selling transactions. The demand for seasonal rice is weak in Long An, while supply has significantly decreased in An Giang. In Trà Vinh, farmers sold rice at low prices. However, the export market saw stable rice prices. The Minister of Agriculture and Environment chaired a conference to review the first year of the 1 million ha high-quality rice project, emphasizing the need for proactive steps towards green consumption and sustainable agricultural development to meet international market demands.

United States

In W15, United States (US) rice prices remained stable WoW but declined by 3.75% YoY to USD 0.77/kg. The YoY decline was primarily driven by higher production levels in the 2024/25 crop year, with total US rice production estimated at approximately 8.6 mmt, a 3% YoY increase compared to the previous year. This increased production boosted domestic supply and alleviated price pressures. Moreover, a drop in global rice prices, particularly from major exporters like India and Thailand, led to more competitive pricing on the international market, making US rice less attractive. While domestic demand remained steady, the drop in export opportunities and lower global prices contributed to the YoY price decrease.

3. Actionable Recommendations 

Invest in Rice Yield Improvement Technologies

Bangladesh should enhance agricultural productivity through advanced rice yield improvement technologies to strengthen domestic rice production and reduce import dependence. The government can partner with local and international research institutions to develop and distribute high-yield, drought-resistant rice varieties that can better withstand climate fluctuations. Moreover, providing farmers with modern farming practices such as precision irrigation, soil health management, and efficient pest control can increase crop productivity. Subsidies or financial assistance to help farmers adopt these technologies, along with training programs on best practices, will enable them to increase yields, reduce costs, and ensure a stable food supply for the growing population. This would also help mitigate future price fluctuations caused by global supply shocks or extreme weather events.

Diversify Export Market

Japan, which has been facing price volatility due to poor harvests and rising demand, should focus on improving its domestic rice production capacity to stabilize the market in the long term. This could involve incentives for young farmers to enter the rice farming industry, as the aging population of farmers in Japan poses a significant challenge to sustainability. The government can offer subsidies or grants to support training programs for younger generations and encourage using automation and technology in rice farming to improve efficiency. Implementing farming technologies, such as drones for crop monitoring, sensors, and artificial intelligence (AI) for precision agriculture, could lead to better yield management. Furthermore, Japan can invest in sustainable farming practices that enhance soil health and increase production while minimizing environmental impacts. By bolstering the resilience of its domestic rice supply chain, Japan can reduce its dependency on rice imports and better handle price fluctuations caused by global market shifts.

Enhance Domestic Rice Production Capacity

Given the pressures Uruguay faces from fluctuating global prices and the impact of currency devaluation, diversifying its export markets is a critical step for ensuring the stability and profitability of the rice industry. Uruguay should work to identify and engage with emerging rice-consuming regions such as Southeast Asia, Africa, and the Middle East, where demand for rice is rising due to population growth and urbanization. The government and rice exporters can organize trade missions, participate in international food expos, and establish bilateral trade agreements to create better market access. Additionally, Uruguay can focus on marketing its rice as a premium product in these new markets, emphasizing quality, sustainability, and fair trade practices. By diversifying its markets and reducing dependency on traditional trade partners like Brazil and India, Uruguay can shield itself from market volatility, improve its pricing power, and create new avenues for revenue growth.

Sources: Tridge, TerreNet, UkrAgroConsult