1. Weekly News

Indonesia

Indonesia’s Rice Output Up 12.4% YoY in Early 2025 as Government Tackles El Niño and Fertilizer Shortages

Indonesia’s 2025 rice harvest reflects substantial progress in national food security, attributed to concrete efforts in agricultural management. The Ministry of Agriculture successfully addressed the increase in fertilizer demand, streamlined bureaucratic processes, and sustained food productivity despite the challenges posed by El Niño. The Ministry also implemented drought mitigation measures, including rapid pumping and piping systems, contributing significantly to increased production. According to data from the Central Statistics Agency (BPS), national rice production reached 62% during the Jan-25 to Mar-25 period compared to the same period in 2024. Projections indicate that output may reach 16.62 million metric tons (mmt) by May-25, representing an increase of 1.83 mmt, or 12.40% year-on-year (YoY), from 14.78 mmt in the same period in 2024.

India

Record Rice Stockpile Positions India to Sustain Global Exports in 2025

As of April 1, India’s state rice reserves, including unmilled paddy, reached a record 63.09 mmt, well above the government’s target of 13.6 mmt. According to trade and industry officials, this substantial stockpile provides India with the capacity to increase rice exports without jeopardizing domestic supply. Given the surplus, the government will encourage exports to avoid additional procurement from the upcoming harvest. India remains the world’s largest rice exporter, accounting for approximately 40% of global trade.

Pakistan

Pakistan Eyes 5.8 MMT Rice Exports in 2025/26, Backed by Steady Southeast Asian Demand

The Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) of the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) forecasts Pakistan’s rice production for the 2025/26 season at 9.8 mmt, assuming stable acreage and average yields. Rice consumption is projected at 4.2 mmt, while exports will hit 5.8 mmt, supported by competitive pricing and steady demand from Southeast Asian countries, including the Philippines, Malaysia, and Indonesia.

South Korea

Korea’s Mountain Rice Price Rally Slows Due to Weak Consumption

The price of mountain rice in South Korea has been rising steadily due to the government's supply and demand measures, but the increase rate has slowed recently due to sluggish consumption. As of April 15, the average price for an 80-kilogram (kg) bag of rice was USD 135.76, showing only a 0.1% week-on-week (WoW) increase. While the government’s measures caused a steady price increase since Nov-24, sluggish consumption due to factors like large-scale forest fires and economic downturns has decreased rice demand, slowing the price rise. The initial expectation of prices reaching USD 140.00 per 80kg in the first half of the year may now be delayed.

2. Weekly Pricing

Weekly Rice Pricing Important Exporters (USD/kg)

Yearly Change in Rice Pricing Important Exporters (W16 2024 to W16 2025) 

India

In W16, India's wholesale rice prices remained stable WoW and month-on-month (MoM). However, prices fell by 4.48% YoY, dropping from USD 0.67/kg in W16 2024 to USD 0.64/kg. This decline is due to a significant increase in domestic supply due to a record-breaking 2024/25 harvest, which is estimated at 135.5 to 138 mmt, up from 130 mmt in the previous year. Moreover, the Indian government's decision to lift the export ban on white rice and reduce the export duty on parboiled rice has improved market liquidity, exerting downward pressure on prices. While domestic demand remains steady, the surge in supply and easing export restrictions have contributed to the price correction.

Vietnam

In W16, Vietnamese rice prices rose by 1.67% in both WoW and MoM, reaching USD 0.61/kg, reversing the decline observed in previous weeks. Although the harvest is ongoing in areas like Trà Vinh, the fresh rice supply is dwindling, and transaction volumes remain low but steady in regions such as An Giang, Kiên Giang, and Bạc Liêu. Prices for fresh ST (fragrant) rice in Bạc Liêu are high due to strong demand, while other regions also saw increased demand for OM 5451 rice. However, warehouse transactions remain slow, contributing to the overall stability in pricing. The export market for Vietnamese rice also shows stability, with set prices for various types of broken rice.

United States

In W16, United States (US) rice prices remained stable WoW and MoM but declined by 3.75% YoY to USD 0.77/kg. The YoY decline was primarily driven by higher production levels in the 2024/25 crop year, with total US rice production estimated at approximately 8.6 mmt, a 3% YoY increase compared to the previous year. This increased production boosted domestic supply and alleviated price pressures. Moreover, a drop in global rice prices, particularly from major exporters like India and Thailand, led to more competitive pricing on the international market, making US rice less attractive. While domestic demand remained steady, the drop in export opportunities and lower global prices contributed to the YoY price decrease.

3. Actionable Recommendations

Enhance Export Infrastructure and Diversify Markets

Given the significant increases in rice production, Indonesia and Pakistan should improve export infrastructure and expand market access. Both countries can invest in modernizing storage facilities, optimizing transportation logistics, and developing robust cold chain systems to reduce post-harvest losses and ensure timely deliveries. Additionally, diversifying export markets beyond traditional buyers would help mitigate risks associated with global price fluctuations and demand shifts. By exploring new trade agreements with emerging rice-importing regions, such as Africa and the Middle East, Indonesia and Pakistan can further capitalize on their surplus rice production and secure long-term trade partnerships.

Implement Demand-Boosting Domestic Campaigns

To maintain rice price stability, South Korea should implement demand-boosting strategies. South Korea's government can invest in promotional campaigns to highlight rice's nutritional benefits and versatility, encouraging increased domestic consumption. Partnerships with restaurants, food service providers, and educational institutions could help integrate rice into various meal plans and menus. Moreover, offering subsidies or discounts for bulk rice purchases or targeting specific demographics like younger generations may foster a renewed interest in rice consumption, stimulating demand and stabilizing prices in the domestic market.

Invest in Sustainable Rice Production Practices

As top rice producers, Vietnam and India can benefit from investing in sustainable farming practices to enhance long-term production and reduce environmental impacts. Implementing water-efficient irrigation systems, adopting precision farming technologies, and promoting organic or eco-friendly fertilizers can help improve yields while minimizing costs and environmental damage. These sustainable practices would also align with global trends toward environmentally conscious farming and may help improve the competitiveness of these countries' rice in international markets, especially as demand for sustainably sourced products increases. In the case of India, where large stockpiles exist, focusing on storage improvements and reducing food waste through better post-harvest handling techniques will also be critical.

Sources: Tridge ,Agriculture, Hellenic Shipping News,Nongmin, Republika, UkrAgroConsult