1. Weekly News

India

Tomato Price Crash in India Hits Farmers Hard Amid Supply Glut and Low Returns

Tomato prices in India plummeted in W16, with wholesale rates falling between USD 0.072 to 0.144 per kilogram (kg) and retail prices to USD 0.18 to 0.24/kg. This is due to a surge in supply that will keep prices low for the next two months. While this benefits consumers, it has severely impacted farmers, many of whom cannot cover production costs. The Agricultural Produce Market Committee (APMC) in Navi Mumbai receives 40 to 50 truckloads daily of about 1,500 to 2,000 quintals from Maharashtra (Satara, Sangli, Pune, Jalgaon, Nashik) and other states like Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, and Bengaluru, ensuring steady supply across Mumbai. However, the market glut has made harvesting unviable, with labor costs at USD 0.24 per crate and market prices ranging from USD 0.84 to 1.44 per crate. Premium tomatoes now fetch USD 0.18 to 0.24/kg, and lower grades just USD 0.06 to 0.084/kg. Tomato imports from Nepal have further depressed prices, prompting farmers to call for compensation to offset losses. Meanwhile, laborers earning USD 3 to 3.6 per day are also struggling, as current tomato prices of USD 0.06 to 0.12/kg are far below production expenses.

Mexico

US Tariff on Mexican Tomatoes Raises Concerns for Sinaloa Growers

The United States Department of Commerce (DOC) announced a 20.91% tariff imposed on most tomatoes imported from Mexico starting July 14. This is after it withdrew from a trade agreement that it claims no longer protects United States (US) tomato growers. This move will significantly impact Mexico’s tomato industry, particularly in Sinaloa, which dominates national production. Mexico relies heavily on tomato exports, sending 56% of its production abroad–99.8% of which goes to the US, bringing in approximately USD 2.85 billion in revenue. Sinaloa’s production alone accounted for 60.9% of Mexico’s tomato output in 2023, with sales reaching USD 1.06 billion. Baja California Sur and Sonora followed with 7.8% and 5.2% of production, respectively. Jalisco and Sonora also recorded high export values at USD 292 million and USD 289 million, respectively. The added cost could reduce competitiveness and severely affect trade flows, employment, and economic stability in Mexico’s key tomato-producing states.

Türkiye

Şahinbey Municipality Distributes 7 Million Vegetable Seedlings to Support Local Farmers

Şahinbey Municipality reinforced its commitment to boost agricultural production and efficiency by distributing 7 million vegetable seedlings, including tomatoes to farmers in the Kapatabilirsiniz neighborhood of rural Gaziantep. During a distribution ceremony organized by the municipality, local farmers received the seedlings as part of a broader initiative to strengthen local agriculture. The support initiative was well received, with many farmers expressing gratitude to the Şahinbey Mayor for his continued efforts to support rural development and agricultural sustainability in the region.

2. Weekly Pricing

Weekly Tomato Pricing Important Exporters (USD/kg)

Yearly Change in Tomato Pricing Important Exporters (W16 2024 to W16 2025)

Mexico

In W16, Mexico's tomato prices fell by 2.50% week-on-week (WoW) to USD 1.56/kg, mainly due to a surge in domestic production. Key growing regions such as Sinaloa and Baja California benefited from favorable weather conditions, which boosted yields and led to an oversupply in the domestic market. This surplus and weakened export demand, particularly from the US, put additional downward pressure on prices. The situation was aggravated by the US Department of Commerce's announcement that, starting July 14, 2025, most Mexican tomato exports to the US will be subject to a 20.91% tariff.

Morocco

​In W16, Morocco's tomato prices declined significantly by 34.69% WoW and 53.62% month-on-month (MoM), reaching USD 0.32/kg. This sharp drop is due to the Moroccan government's implementation of export quotas, which reduced daily tomato exports to Europe by 90% for round and grape varieties. These measures were enacted to prioritize domestic supply and stabilize local market prices. Consequently, the influx of tomatoes into the domestic market increased, leading to a substantial price drop. The timing of these interventions was crucial, as the demand for food typically spiked during Ramadan, further necessitating such actions to ensure local availability and prevent price inflation.

Spain

In W16, Spain's wholesale tomato prices declined 10.84% WoW and 8.64% MoM to USD 0.74/kg. This decrease is primarily due to increased production and supply chain improvements, leading to an oversupply in the market. This downward trend was influenced by favorable growing conditions, increased import volumes, and shifts in consumer demand. In Spain, the decline in tomato prices was also due to increased production levels and stable market conditions, contributing to the overall price reduction. ​

Türkiye

​In W16, Türkiye's wholesale tomato prices experienced a significant decline, dropping to USD 0.92/kg, reflecting a 25.81% WoW, 29.77% MoM, and 14.81% year-on-year (YoY) decrease. The drop is primarily due to the seasonal transition between the end of the greenhouse production cycle and the commencement of the new harvest. During this period, supply temporarily outpaces demand, leading to price reductions. Moreover, the lifting of export restrictions to Russia has intensified competition in international markets, further pressuring domestic prices. Despite the current downturn, growers maintain profitability due to the previous high prices, which have offset the recent declines. However, if prices fall below the break-even point of USD 0.50 to 0.60/kg, producers may reconsider tomato cultivation in future seasons, potentially leading to supply shortages and subsequent price increases.

France

In W16, France's tomato prices rose by 1.38% WoW, reaching USD 2.20/kg, up from USD 2.17/kg in W15. This increase was due to tight domestic supply, high input costs, and stronger demand from domestic consumers and European buyers. The rise occurred amid a 9 to 10% decrease in French greenhouse tomato output for the 2024/25 season, primarily due to high energy prices discouraging winter greenhouse production. Moreover, unseasonably cool temperatures in early spring delayed open-field tomato harvests, worsening short-term supply shortages. Meanwhile, neighboring countries like Germany and Belgium experienced supply gaps and contributed to rising import demand. These factors put upward pressure on French wholesale tomato prices, pushing them to some of the highest levels seen in 2025.

3. Actionable Recommendations

Mitigate Price Plummets Amid Tomato Glut

In response to the current glut of tomatoes and low prices in India, particularly in key markets like Navi Mumbai, stakeholders, including local authorities and agricultural cooperatives, should focus on enhancing market access and stabilizing prices through better storage infrastructure. Building cold storage facilities and creating decentralized distribution hubs can help reduce post-harvest losses and better manage supply during times of glut. Furthermore, implementing a tomato price stabilization fund could offer financial relief to farmers, helping them cover production costs when prices dip below sustainable levels. This would reduce financial strain on farmers, preserve the economic viability of tomato farming, and prevent excessive price fluctuations. Consumers would still benefit from a stable supply, while farmers could avoid drastic losses.

Adapt to US Tariffs and Strengthen Export Diversification

In light of the US' decision to impose a 20.91% tariff on Mexican tomato imports starting Jul-25, Mexico should focus on diversifying its export markets and increasing domestic processing capacities. Expanding trade relationships with other countries, particularly those in Europe and Asia, can help mitigate the risk posed by the reduced competitiveness in the US market. In parallel, Mexico should incentivize the development of more value-added tomato products (such as canned tomatoes, sauces, and pastes), which can be exported at higher margins and provide better price stability. Diversifying export destinations and enhancing domestic processing capabilities will reduce Mexico's dependence on the US market, provide more income stability for growers, and foster long-term economic growth in tomato production.

Balance Domestic Supply with Export Demand

Dealing with the effects of implementing export quotas to stabilize domestic tomato prices, Morocco should focus on improving the efficiency of its tomato supply chain and boosting domestic storage capacity. Given the sharp drop in prices following the reduction in exports, enhancing storage infrastructure can prevent waste and allow for a more controlled release of tomatoes into the market as needed. Furthermore, establishing stronger contractual agreements with European buyers could help secure more consistent export demand without over-relying on peak season exports. Morocco can avoid sharp price fluctuations and ensure that domestic demand and export commitments are met by bolstering storage and improving market predictability.

Sources: Tridge, Food Mate, Fresh Plaza, Horti Daily, Kamu3, News Band