W16 Coffee Update: Brazilian Coffee Exports Surged in Mar-24; Brazil, Vietnam, and Colombia Lead Global Coffee Production in 2023/24

Global Coffee Production Forecast for the 2023/24 Season

The global coffee production forecast for the 2023/24 harvest estimates a total output of 171.4 million 60-kilogram (kg) bags. The production of Arabica and Robusta coffee species, with a focus on the top three coffee-producing countries: Brazil, Vietnam, and Colombia. These countries are the three largest coffee-producing countries, respectively, with their respective harvests corresponding to 57% and 58% of the predicted world harvest, respectively. Brazil's total harvest of 58.08 million 60 kg bags, representing 34% of global production, is the leading producer. Vietnam's production of 27.5 million 60kg bags, representing 16% of the world harvest, is second, while Colombia's forecast of 11.5 million 60kg bags, representing 6.7% of the total, is third.

Brazilian Coffee Exports Reach Record High in Mar-24

Brazilian coffee exports reached a record high in Mar-24, totaling 4.29 million bags, marking a significant increase. This growth was driven by higher exports of Arabica and Robusta/Conilon coffee, with Robusta/Conilon shipments reaching 849.7 thousand bags. The increase in Brazilian coffee exports is part of a larger trend driven by a decline in Robusta exports from Vietnam and Indonesia, which faced adverse weather conditions and reduced cultivation areas. However, there are concerns about the global balance of Robusta coffee, particularly in Vietnam, where sales have decreased due to potential droughts affecting supply. These developments have macroeconomic implications for coffee prices, especially with United States (US) inflation reaching 0.4% in Mar-24. This inflation data could influence the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions and potentially put downward pressure on the commodities market, including coffee.

Indonesian Coffee Dominated Egyptian Market in 2023

In 2023, Indonesia, the world's fourth-largest and Asia's second-biggest coffee producer, exported 276 thousand metric tons (mt) of coffee valued at USD 916 million. Egypt emerged as the second-largest export destination, accounting for 5.2% of Indonesia's total coffee exports. The Indonesian Ambassador in Cairo is working to enhance trade relations with Egypt, highlighting Indonesia's unique aroma, flavor, and competitive pricing to increase its appeal in the Egyptian market.