1. Weekly News

Global

Global Coffee Prices Climb Amid Supply Concerns and Dry Weather

Coffee prices are rising both globally and in Vietnam due to tight supply, dry weather in major producing regions like Latin America, and steady export demand. In Vietnam, farmers are holding back stock in anticipation of better prices as prolonged drought reduces output. Globally, fears of lower production in Brazil and dwindling inventories continue to pressure markets. Analysts also highlight that potential United States (US) tariffs on coffee imports could disrupt supply chains and push consumer prices even higher.

Brazil

Brazil’s Premium Coffee Market Grows with Focus on Quality and Craftsmanship

Driven by growing domestic demand, Brazil’s premium coffee market is expanding at around 20% annually, prompting more farmers to invest in high-quality production. On a farm in Garça (São Paulo), selective hand harvesting of ripe, sugar-rich cherries and slow drying on raised beds are key to producing specialty-grade beans. These careful practices enhance flavor complexity and overall quality, making the coffee more valuable. The international market dictates pricing, with premium beans fetching higher returns depending on quality scores.

China

Pu'er Emerges as China’s Coffee Capital Amid Cultural Shift from Tea to Espresso

Once known for its centuries-old tea traditions, China’s Pu'er region in Yunnan province is experiencing a coffee boom driven by shifting consumer preferences among younger generations. As espresso, lattes, and other specialty coffees gain popularity, many local tea growers are transitioning to coffee cultivation, taking advantage of the region’s high altitude and favorable climate. Coffee production, which began commercially in the 1980s, now supplies tens of thousands of tons annually to major urban centers like Beijing and Shanghai. Government support and rising domestic demand are accelerating this growth, with policies encouraging integrated coffee-tourism ventures to boost local economies. Yunnan coffee is gaining national prominence, with officials highlighting it as a product that represents China’s agricultural innovation and modern identity.

Colombia

Colombian Coffee Exports Surge to Five-Year High in Q1 2025

Colombia exported 3.59 million 60-kilogram (kg) bags of coffee in the first quarter (Q1) 2025, marking a 20% year-on-year (YoY) increase and its highest first-quarter volume in five years. The US remained the top destination, importing 1.44 million bags—a 30.7% rise YoY. Export revenue soared 64% to USD 1.31 billion, driven by higher global prices. According to the National Federation of Coffee Growers (FNC), this growth signals a rebound in international competitiveness despite logistical and geopolitical challenges, solidifying Colombia’s role as the world’s third-largest coffee producer.

India

India’s Coffee Production to Decline in MY 2025/26 Amid Weather Challenges

FAS Mumbai projects India’s coffee production for the 2025/26 season at six million 60-kg bags, impacted by dry conditions, strong winds, and excessive pre-monsoon rains that are expected to lower yields. Farmgate prices for Arabica and Robusta have surged by 64% and 24%, respectively, due to global supply constraints and weather-related concerns. While exports are forecast to drop to six million bags, growing domestic demand—particularly for soluble coffee—is set to boost consumption to 1.4 million bags, partially offsetting the decline in export volumes.

2. Weekly Pricing

Weekly Coffee Pricing Important Exporters (USD/kg)

Yearly Change in Coffee Pricing Important  Exporters (W18 2024 to W18 2025) 

Brazil

By W18, Brazil's coffee price reached USD 10.85/kg, reflecting a 70.60% YoY increase, a 11.74% month-on-month (MoM) rise, and a 5.24% week-on-week (WoW) gain. This surge was driven by a forecasted decline in the Arabica harvest due to persistent climate disruptions, tightening supply expectations. Farmers reduced selling, anticipating higher returns, while a stronger US dollar bolstered Brazilian coffee exports, pushing prices higher. Increased speculative trading in futures markets further supported bullish market sentiment. Although the early Conilon harvest slightly pressured short-term sentiment, it couldn't offset the overall upward momentum, fueled by expectations of record revenues in 2025.

Colombia

By W18, Colombia's coffee price reached USD 10.69/kg, marking a 32.96% YoY increase, a 9.87% MoM rise, and a 7.44% WoW gain. The price increase was fueled by a significant rise in export volumes and revenues, particularly to key markets like the US and Europe, signaling a recovery in production volumes and improving international competitiveness. The diversification of Colombia's export destinations helped stabilize demand, mitigating the impact of potential US tariffs. Continued global demand provided sustained long-term upward pressure on prices, driving the overall bullish market sentiment.

Vietnam

By W18, Vietnam's coffee price stood at USD 5.01/kg, reflecting a slight 0.99% YoY decrease and a 0.40% WoW drop, but a 7.28% MoM increase. The price decrease in W18 was primarily a market correction following a previous surge in Robusta prices. Despite strong global demand for Robusta, export volumes from Vietnam declined, partially due to farmers holding back stock in anticipation of future price improvements. Additionally, the ongoing drought has reduced output, raising global supply concerns. Although short-term prices dipped, long-term uncertainty continues, driven by climate volatility and regulatory shifts, such as the EU's deforestation rules, that could impact future pricing and market stability.

3. Actionable Recommendations 

Leverage Premium and Specialty Markets in Brazil and Colombia

The growing demand for high-quality and premium coffees in Brazil presents opportunities for companies to tap into the expanding market, particularly as farmers focus on selective harvesting and craftsmanship. Similarly, Colombia’s surge in export volumes, particularly in the premium sector, makes it an attractive market for premium coffee offerings. International players should partner with Colombian producers and invest in traceability systems to differentiate their coffee in markets such as the US and Europe, where demand for specialty-grade coffee continues to rise.

Explore the Growing Coffee Culture in China

China’s shift from tea to coffee, particularly in regions like Yunnan, offers an exciting growth opportunity. The government’s support and rising domestic demand for coffee are fostering an environment ripe for investment. Companies could explore establishing a presence in China through partnerships with local producers, who are increasingly shifting from tea to coffee cultivation. Additionally, integrating coffee with tourism, a growing trend in the region, could create additional revenue streams, further strengthening market presence. 

Sources: Tridge, G1, Portal do Agronegocio, VinaNet, VOH, USDA