W18 2025: Milk Weekly Update

Published 2025년 5월 9일
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In W18 in the milk landscape, some of the most relevant trends included: 

  • Milk production is rising in Nicaragua, Turkey, and Switzerland, driven by herd productivity and national expansion.
  • Oversupply and import pressure are weighing on prices in Ukraine and France, while Belgium and the Netherlands remain supported by tight supply.
  • The focus on processing and value-added products is growing, with countries converting more raw milk into exportable dairy products.
  • Biosecurity and labor risks are emerging as critical concerns, especially amid FMD threats and workforce constraints.

1. Weekly News

Nicaragua

Nicaragua’s Dairy Production Reaches 91 Million Gallons in Early 2025

Nicaragua's milk production achieved a significant milestone in the first quarter of 2025, reaching 91 million gallons. This accomplishment involved over 110,000 farms, ensuring domestic demand was met and supporting local markets. Approximately 72% of the production is processed into dairy derivatives for both local use and export. The dairy sector is vital for the country's food security and serves as a crucial source of income for farming families, underscoring its importance to Nicaragua’s economy and society.

Switzerland

Record-High Milk Yields for Swiss Holsteins in 2024

In 2024, Swiss Holstein cows achieved an average annual milk yield of 9,260 kilograms (kg) with 4.07% fat and 3.28% protein. The number of cows surpassing 80,000 kg in lifetime production rose to nearly 1,200, marking an increase of 34 from the previous year. The highest-producing cow, Wirth’s Joyboy Granada, reached a lifetime total of 205,019 kg of milk at 18 years old, averaging 31.1 kg per day. In comparison, culled cows in 2024 averaged 32,447 kg in total lifetime yield and produced 15.3 kg per day, with exceptional cows born in 2003, achieving 156,672 kg over their life at a daily rate of 19.9 kg.

Turkey

Turkey’s Raw Milk Production Rose by 4.7% in 2024 Amid Shifts in Milk Types

According to the Turkish Statistical Institute (TÜİK), raw milk production in Turkey is projected to reach 22.49 million tons in 2024—a 4.7% increase from 2023. Cow milk, which accounts for 93.6% of total production, rose by 5.4%, while buffalo milk increased by 35.1%. In contrast, sheep and goat milk production declined by 2.9% and 11.2%, respectively. Of the total output, 57.7% was delivered to milk collection centers and processors, while 18.3% went directly to consumers or local sellers. About 15.9% was used for home dairy production, and smaller portions were used for animal feed (4.8%), household consumption or free distribution (1.1%). Losses during production and processing accounted for just 0.1%, with 2% of milk use untracked.

Ukraine

Ukrainian Raw Milk Prices Stabilize Amid Surplus and Import Pressure

As of late Apr-25, Ukraine’s raw milk market showed relative price stabilization, with average procurement prices slightly declining across all quality grades. Extra grade milk averaged USD 0.39/kg (UAH 16.15/kg), down USD 0.0048/kg (UAH 0.20/kg) month-on-month (MoM). Higher and first grades recorded smaller drops. The oversupply of raw milk on the domestic market is pressuring mid-range prices, as production outpaces sales. A growing share of imported dairy, especially cheese—now comprising nearly 50% of retail shelf space—is threatening local processors’ survival. Additionally, the risk of foot-and-mouth (FMD) disease spreading from Slovakia and Hungary poses a major threat. A domestic outbreak could trigger price collapses due to quarantine measures and export bans, highlighting the urgent need for strict biosecurity on dairy farms. If managed well, Ukrainian exporters may gain opportunities as restrictions hit Central and Eastern Europe.

Ukrainian Skimmed Milk Powder Market Stable Despite Export Uncertainty

Ukraine’s skimmed milk powder (SMP) market remains relatively stable, with prices largely unaffected by increased supply and lower euro-denominated demand due to currency exchange rate effects. According to Infagro analysts, although exports—particularly to the European Union (EU)—have risen, concerns loom over potential disruptions after June 5, when new EU supply regulations may impact trade. Despite these risks, domestic prices have not dropped significantly thanks to new demand from ice cream producers and expanding production volumes, which now exceed last year’s levels. Additionally, more operators entering the market are expected to further increase whole milk powder output in April.

2. Weekly Pricing

Weekly Powdered Milk Pricing Important Exporters (USD/kg)

* All pricing is wholesale
* Varieties: Germany and Belgium (whole powdered milk), Netherlands and Poland (skimmed powdered milk), France (semi-skimmed powdered milk)

Yearly Change in Powdered Milk Pricing Important Exporters (W18 2024 to W18 2025)

* All pricing is wholesale
* Varieties: Germany and Belgium (whole powdered milk), Netherlands and Poland (skimmed powdered milk), France (semi-skimmed powdered milk)
* Blank spaces on the graph signify data unavailability stemming from factors like missing data, supply unavailability, or seasonality

Belgium

In W18, Belgium's milk price was USD 3.98/kg, reflecting a slight 0.75% week-on-week (WoW) drop as supply begins to stabilize, although it remains tight. Despite this, MoM and year-on-year (YoY) prices increased by 3.38% and 8.74%, respectively, due to ongoing tight supply conditions. High input costs, including feed, energy, and labor, coupled with labor shortages and an aging farming population, continue to limit production expansion. Strong global demand, particularly from emerging markets, is supporting export flows and keeping upward pressure on prices, ensuring a continued upward trend despite the minor WoW price drop.

Netherlands 

In W18, the milk price in the Netherlands was USD 2.39/kg, showing a slight WoW decline of 0.83% and a YoY drop of the same rate due to improved supply, despite still being tight. MoM prices edged up by 2.14%. The modest upward monthly trend is supported by improving global demand, particularly from China and Southeast Asia, as well as reduced imports into Vietnam from key exporters like Australia and the United States (US), which has opened opportunities for EU suppliers. However, ongoing uncertainties, including potential supply disruptions due to FMD threats in Europe, add volatility and may provide future price support.

France

In W18, milk prices in France dropped to USD 2.76/kg, marking a WoW decline of 1.08%, a MoM drop of 0.36%, and a steep YoY decrease of 22.47%. These consistent price reductions are largely driven by an improving domestic supply situation, as producers increasingly shift from organic back to conventional milk, contributing to market saturation. Additionally, sluggish demand recovery and intensified competition from neighboring Germany have constrained France's export potential, placing further downward pressure on prices despite signs of short-term market stabilization.

3. Actionable Recommendations 

Strengthen Biosecurity and Disease Contingency Planning

The risk of FMD spreading across Eastern and Central Europe could disrupt both production and trade. Countries like Ukraine and the Netherlands should invest in farm-level biosecurity protocols and cross-border veterinary coordination to avoid quarantines and ensure export continuity. This is also a strategic opportunity for exporters in unaffected regions (e.g., Switzerland, Nicaragua) to gain temporary market share if outbreaks occur.

Prioritize High-Yield Genetics and Technology Transfer

Switzerland’s Holstein performance shows the long-term productivity benefits of superior genetics and herd management. Other countries should invest in breed improvement programs (via artificial intelligence services or embryo transfers) and adopt performance tracking tech to boost yields. Nicaragua, with over 110,000 small farms, could benefit from partnerships with Swiss or Dutch research institutions to improve per-cow output and milk quality.

Sources: Tridge, Agravery, Agro Portal UA, Agro Times UA, Bursa Hakimiyet, Ekonomi, Paranali, Veeteelt

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