W18 2025: Sunflower Oil Weekly Update
.jpg)
In W18 in the sunflower oil landscape, some of the most relevant trends included:
- Spain, the US, and Ukraine are all expanding sunflower planting in 2025 due to high profitability, resilience, and strong demand from crushers and exporters. The US leads with a 49% acreage surge, while Spain's northern regions are benefiting from weather-delayed sowing in other producing regions.
- Ukraine's sunflower oil market is buoyed by high demand from India and Iraq, offsetting weak interest from traditional EU buyers like Italy and Spain and supporting a steady price rise.
- Ukraine and Russia are seeing YoY price increases above 37%, driven by tight seed availability and high input costs. Ukraine also faces rising processing costs, which are impacting margins despite export growth.
- While prices have held steady WoW in Argentina and Russia, both show strong YoY gains . Anticipated large harvests in Argentina and muted global demand may cap future gains despite recent increases.
1. Weekly News
Spain
Sunflower Planting Gains Ground in Castilla y León Amid Weather Delays and Market Uncertainty
Sunflower planting in Castilla y León is expected to rise in 2025, potentially surpassing 400,000 hectares, driven by favorable pricing, delayed sowing of alternative crops due to persistent rainfall, and its lower input costs compared to cereals and sugar beet. The wet spring has postponed sowing in Andalusia, opening market opportunities for northern producers. Despite ongoing geopolitical and pricing uncertainties—exacerbated by Ukrainian exports—sunflower remains a refuge crop due to its adaptability, cost-efficiency, and resilience in rotations. Farmers continue shifting from sugar beet and maize, with many citing sunflower as a safer, more profitable alternative amid unpredictable international markets.
Ukraine
Strong Demand from Turkey and India Boosts Ukrainian Sunflower Oil Prices
Ukrainian processors are experiencing strong demand for sunflower seeds due to expected growth in sunflower oil exports to Turkey and India in May. While this demand supports market activity, interest from traditional European buyers like Italy and Spain remains subdued, limiting broader market momentum. Despite stable conditions at domestic ports and unchanged seed prices, the overall outlook hinges on sustained interest from non-European markets.
United States
US Sunflower Plantings Surge 49% for 2025, Led by Oilseed Demand
Driven by strong demand from oilseed crushers and bird food buyers amid tight seed stocks, United States (US) farmers plan to increase sunflower plantings by 49% in 2025, reaching 1.07 million acres after a record-low area last year. While the 62% jump in oil-type sunflower acres to 960,500 met industry expectations, non-oil varieties declined 12% to 112,000 acres, falling short of trader forecasts. Seven of the eight major producing states anticipate acreage increases, with North Dakota leading the surge, while California is the only state projecting a decline.
2. Weekly Pricing
Weekly Sunflower Oil Pricing Top Producers (USD/kg)
_10.25.56.png)
Yearly Change in Sunflower Oil Pricing Top Producers (W18 2024 to W18 2025)
* Blank spaces on the graph signify data unavailability stemming from factors like missing data, supply unavailability, or seasonality
Russia
In W18, Russian sunflower oil prices remained stable at USD 1.13 per kilogram (kg), with no change week-on-week (WoW) or month-on-month (MoM). This stability comes despite minor fluctuations in the ruble (RUB), which have not affected US prices due to currency fluctuations, particularly the EUR/USD exchange rate. Prices have increased by 37.80% year-on-year (YoY), driven by poor weather conditions limiting sunflower seed supply and raising input costs. Additionally, competitive offers from Argentina and price alignment with Ukraine have exerted upward pressure. The market anticipates higher demand at the end of April, although concerns over high raw material costs and weak global demand continue to pose challenges for future processing profitability.
Ukraine
In W18, Ukrainian sunflower oil prices rose to USD 1.16/kg, reflecting a WoW increase of 0.87%, a MoM rise of 1.75%, and a YoY surge of 38.10%. These increases are primarily driven by a tight domestic sunflower seed supply and robust export demand, particularly from India and Iraq, which has supported elevated price levels. High processing costs have further contributed to upward price pressure. However, the market faces mixed sentiment as rising raw material prices continue to erode processing margins, while external factors such as falling crude oil prices, and a weaker USD, have slightly limited momentum.
Argentina
In W18 2025, Argentina's sunflower oil prices held steady at USD 1.11/kg, with no WoW change, a very slight MoM increase of 0.91%, and a significant YoY rise of 30.59%. Prices have been supported by strong export demand, expanding processing activity, and favorable local seed availability resulting from improved rainfall and better-than-expected yields. The reopening of key processing plants has also boosted production and export capacity. Nonetheless, market participants are cautious, as expectations of a large upcoming harvest are generating downward pressure that could lead to future price declines due to anticipated supply growth.
3. Actionable Recommendations
Prepare for Stronger US Competition in Global Markets
A 49% increase in US sunflower acreage, especially oil-type varieties, suggests that US-origin sunflower oil may enter global markets aggressively by late 2025. Exporters from Russia, Ukraine, and Argentina should adjust pricing strategies accordingly, while buyers can anticipate future diversification opportunities.
Evaluate Profitability Against Rising Input Costs
Processors should reassess their cost structures, as input prices continue to rise in Ukraine and Russia, squeezing margins despite strong export prices. Where feasible, explore forward contracts for seeds or switch to less volatile oilseeds like soy for margin protection in case sunflower seed inflation continues.
Sources: Tridge, News Dakota, UKR Agro Consult
