1. Weekly News

Global

Global Beef Prices Forecast to Rise in 2025 Amid Tight Supply and Growing Demand

According to Minerva Foods, one of the beef exporting industries in Brazil, beef export prices to the United States (US), China, and the European Union (EU) are projected to rise in 2025 due to tightening global supply and increasing demand. US prices are expected to continue rising through the second and third quarters, with a significant portion of the tariff-free export quota already utilized early in the year. In China, export prices began to increase in Mar-25 and are anticipated to rise further in the coming weeks. The European market is seeing the fastest price growth, driven by a notable shortage of livestock.

Bolivia

Bolivia Extends Beef Export Ban as Market Losses and Smuggling Concerns Grow

Bolivia’s government has extended its beef export ban beyond 90 days, resulting in losses of over USD 63 million and threatening the country’s access to key markets like China and Peru. The government argues that the measure is necessary to stabilize domestic meat prices, citing sufficient national cattle supply and rejecting the need for imports. However, exporters warn the prolonged restriction could drive international buyers to alternative suppliers. Compounding the issue is a rise in reverse smuggling, which is illegal exports, fueled by currency shortages and price disparities with neighboring countries. Authorities are now investigating alleged irregular beef exports despite the ban and enhancing digital traceability systems to monitor livestock movement. The government insists that the export suspension will remain until consumer prices drop, even as it considers import options if needed.

Brazil

Brazil’s Beef Exports Surged in Apr-25 as US Becomes Second-Largest Buyer

According to data from the Secretariat of Foreign Trade (Secex), Brazil’s beef exports reached 273.4 thousand metric tons (mt), valued at USD 1.33 billion in Apr-25. This represents a 10.2% rise in volume and a 13.1% increase in value compared to Mar-25. The in natura category accounted for 88.4% of the total exported volume and 91.3% of revenue in Apr-25, reinforcing its leading position among shipped products. China remained the top buyer, accounting for 39.4% of the volume at 107.8 thousand mt, followed by the US with 47.8 thousand tons (17.5%). Notably, US imports surged by 498% compared to Apr-24. US purchases totaled 135.8 thousand mt in the first four months, cementing the US as Brazil’s second-largest beef market with a 14.3% share. This surge occurred despite the implementation of US tariffs under the current administration. For the Jan-25 to Apr-25 period, Brazil’s beef exports reached 949.9 thousand mt, worth USD 4.55 billion. This represents a 13.5% increase in volume and a 23.7% rise in value compared to the same period in 2024. The main destinations included China, the US, Chile, Hong Kong, the EU, Egypt, Russia, Algeria, Mexico, and Saudi Arabia.

Spain

Tight Supply and Strong Export Demand Drive Beef Carcass Prices Higher

The beef carcass market in Spain is currently experiencing price tension, driven by an increase in the prices of female and Friesian cattle, which are typically destined for the domestic market. This comes amid a decline in production, keeping prices at record high levels. The supply of animals, both in number and weight, remains limited, while demand, particularly from foreign markets, has rebounded. Exports, especially to European countries, Morocco, Lebanon, and Algeria, are active. Domestically, female cattle prices have risen at the Binéfar market, with exports outpacing local sales. The market has seen fewer slaughters, with cattle only being slaughtered as necessary. Despite tight supply, beef carcass prices at the Ebro market remain stable, with strong exports to Europe and solid domestic demand.

United States

US-UK Trade Deal Opens New Doors for US Beef Exports

A trade agreement between the US and the United Kingdom (UK) was announced on May 8, which eliminates non-tariff barriers and improves access to the UK market for US agricultural, chemical, and meat products. The agreement is particularly beneficial for the US beef industry, as it addresses longstanding restrictions that were imposed under EU regulations. The deal is expected to significantly increase the presence of US beef in the UK, opening up new opportunities for US ranchers and producers. While the details of beef product access are still being finalized, the agreement marks a major step forward in strengthening the trade relationship between the two countries and paves the way for greater export opportunities for high-quality US beef. The agreement also aims to ensure that UK health and food safety standards are maintained while improving market access for US beef.

2. Weekly Pricing

Weekly Beef Pricing Important Exporters (USD/kg)

Yearly Change in Beef Pricing Important Exporters (W19 2024 to W19 2025) 

Brazil

In W19, Brazil’s wholesale boneless rear beef prices increased by 2.93% week-on-week (WoW) to USD 4.92 per kilogram (kg), marking a 2.07% month-on-month (MoM) increase and a 3.58% year-on-year (YoY) rise. According to Safras and Mercado, beef prices in the wholesale market remained relatively favorable over the week. However, in the second half of May-25, a more restrained consumption pattern is anticipated, likely exerting downward pressure on prices as consumers shift towards more affordable protein options such as chicken, sausages, and eggs. Meanwhile, the physical market for beef cattle closed the week with declining prices, continuing a recent trend. This downward movement is expected to persist in the short term, given current slaughter scales averaging six to eight business days nationwide. Many processing industries are currently holding off on cattle purchases, reassessing their procurement strategies. In Brazil’s northern region, an increasing supply of female cattle is intensifying pressure on the market. However, strong export demand continues to provide some support to the sector.

Australia

Australia’s National Young Cattle Indicator averaged USD 2.42/kg in W19, showing a 0.82% WoW decline but marking a 1.26% MoM rise and a 15.79% YoY increase. According to Meat and Livestock Australia (MLA), the cattle market weakened over the week, with all major indicators recording declines from the previous week. Driven by a substantial supply of cows, a record yarding at Wagga’s May 5 sale pushed the national processor cow indicator up by 2.5 thousand heads, although rising supply exerted downward price pressure. In contrast, the national feeder steer indicator remained firm, supported by stable pricing at key New South Wales saleyards, including CTLX Carcoar, Gunnedah, and Tamworth, despite higher volumes.

United States

In W19, US lean beef (92% to 94%) averaged USD 8.63/kg, reflecting a 0.80% WoW and 1.03% MoM decline, likely due to softened demand following recent record highs. Despite four straight weeks of easing, prices have consistently stayed above USD 8.60/kg, signaling underlying market resilience. Prices remained 7.88% higher YoY, supported by tightening domestic supply linked to a shrinking cow herd. According to the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), the US cattle inventory dropped to 86.7 million heads as of January 1, 2025, the lowest level since 1951. As a result, Q1-2025 beef production was revised down by 65 million pounds (lbs), with total 2025 output now projected at 26.69 billion lbs, a 1% decline from 2024 and 6% below 2022 levels. Furthermore, the introduction of a new 10% baseline tariff on all beef imports could exacerbate supply constraints and reinforce upward price pressures as summer demand builds.

Argentina

Argentina’s average steer beef price fell to USD 2.34/kg in W19, marking a 2.50% WoW drop and 4.10% MoM decline, largely due to weakened demand. Despite this, prices were still 11.43% higher YoY, underscoring the broader context of reduced beef consumption in 2024 amid ongoing economic difficulties. Supply-side concerns are also intensifying. The USDA projects Argentina’s beef production will drop by 3% YoY to 3.08 million metric tons (mmt) in 2025, following a revised cattle slaughter estimate of 13.4 million heads due to early sell-offs driven by drought and high production costs. The national herd has decreased to 52.37 million heads, the lowest in years, due to poor calving rates and adverse weather conditions. However, recent rainfall may support pasture recovery and gradual herd rebuilding later in the year. Domestic beef consumption is expected to hold steady at 2.31 mmt in 2025, similar to 2024 levels, though economic constraints continue to reduce per capita intake, boosting the preference for pork and poultry. A recovery in consumer spending could potentially revive domestic beef prices.

3. Actionable Recommendations

Seize Market Opportunities as Global Export Prices are Expected to Rise

With beef prices projected to rise in major markets like the US, China, and the EU in 2025, exporters should adopt a dynamic pricing strategy that reflects tightening global supply and regional demand variations. Exporters, particularly in South America like Brazil, Argentina, Paraguay, and Uruguay, should prioritize high-value markets and allocate premium-quality cuts to destinations experiencing the fastest price growth such as the US, the EU and China. Strengthening supply chain resilience through forward contracts and diversifying logistics partners will help stabilize delivery amid tightening supply. Exporters should also enhance traceability and compliance to meet evolving market standards, ensuring continued access and price premiums.

Strengthen Brazil’s Beef Presence in the US Market Through Value Addition and Diplomacy

Despite higher tariffs, Brazil’s surging beef exports to the US highlight the market's importance. To deepen its footprint, Brazil should invest in value-added processing like portioned cuts, ready-to-cook products tailored to US consumer preferences. Engaging in diplomatic dialogue to explore tariff mitigation or quota expansion, particularly for higher-value products, will be essential. Brazil should also maintain strict sanitary protocols and fast-track approvals for additional processing facilities eligible for export to the US, ensuring sustained competitiveness amid rising global demand.

Maximize New UK Market Access through Branding and Compliance

To capitalize on the newly opened UK market, the US beef industry should implement a targeted branding and consumer education campaign that emphasizes the quality, safety, and sustainability of US beef. Rapid alignment with UK import requirements, particularly in health and food safety, will be crucial for maintaining compliance and gaining trust. Forming strategic partnerships with UK retailers and distributors can accelerate market penetration, especially when focused on introducing high-margin, premium cuts. A phased market entry, backed by trade promotion efforts, will support long-term integration and position US beef competitively against established EU suppliers.

Sources: Tridge, Agromeat, Agropopular, Canal Rural