1. Weekly News

Global

Global Rice Market Faces Bearish Outlook as Stocks Surge and Prices Fall

Global rice prices have fallen to multi-year lows, driven by a strong Indian rupee (INR), large Indian stockpiles, and a robust harvest across Asia. On Apr-25, Indian parboiled rice export prices dropped to a 22-month low following the removal of export curbs. Prices in Thailand hit a three-year low, while Vietnam saw a near five-year low. Industry executives and traders expect rice prices to remain subdued through the end of 2025, potentially stabilizing around USD 10 per metric ton (mt) of milled rice by year-end. While this price drop benefits import-dependent, price-sensitive consumers in Africa and elsewhere, it raises concerns for Asian farmers, who face narrow profit margins. Asia accounts for nearly 90% of global rice production.

The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) forecasts global rice production to reach a record 543.6 million metric tons (mmt) in the 2024/25 marketing year (MY), up from 535.4 mmt in MY 2023/24. With global supply, including stocks, expected to hit 743 mmt, and demand rising modestly to 539.4 mmt, the oversupply will continue to weigh on prices. India's government rice stocks, including unmilled rice, stood at 63.09 mmt as of April 1, nearly five times the government’s buffer target of 13.6 mmt, underscoring the market’s bearish fundamentals.

Brazil

Rio Grande do Sul’s 2024/25 Rice Harvest Nears Completion with Record Yields

According to the Rio Grande do Sul Rice Institute (IRGA), the 2024/25 rice harvest in Rio Grande do Sul has reached 91.51% of the cultivated area. The estimated average productivity stood at 9.02 mt per hectare (ha), the highest in recent years. If this yield holds through the remainder of the cycle, total production could surpass 8.75 mmt of paddy rice. Harvest progress is led by key rice-producing regions, with the Western Frontier nearly complete at 98.9%, followed by the External Coastal Plain (97.5%), Internal Coastal Plain (95.8%), Southern Zone (84.1%), the Campaign (81.3%), and the Central Region (76.5%). These figures reflect a swift and efficient harvest, supported by favorable weather and strong producer engagement.

Pakistan

Pakistan Tightened Paddy Sowing Rules in Punjab Under Pest Control Ordinance

Amid rising tensions with India, Pakistan's Ministry of National Food Security and Research (MoA) has banned early paddy cultivation in Punjab to address concerns over water wastage and increased pest infestations. The government issued strict directives under the Punjab Agricultural Pest Ordinance of 1959 and 1960, prohibiting paddy sowing before May 20 and warning of legal action against violators. Officials stated that premature planting contributes to excessive water use and raises the risk of pest outbreaks, which could harm crop quality and productivity. The move will conserve water resources and improve paddy yields across the province. The notice urges farmers to comply with the guidelines to avoid penalties and ensure a successful harvest. Authorities emphasized that while paddy is vital in Punjab’s agricultural economy, adherence to the revised timeline is critical for sustainable production and environmental protection.

Thailand

Thailand’s Rice Exports to Drop 25% YoY in 2024/25 as Cheaper Rivals Gain Ground

Thailand’s rice exports will decline sharply in 2024/25, with the Ministry of Commerce setting a reduced target of 7.5 mmt, down from nearly 10 mmt exported in 2023/24, according to the Thai Rice Exporters Association (TREA). In Q1-2025 alone, exports dropped 30% year-on-year (YoY), driven by reduced global demand, a stronger Thai baht (THB), and rising competition from lower-priced suppliers like India and Vietnam. TREA’s President noted that Indian rice is around USD 40/mt cheaper, prompting key buyers such as South Africa, Malaysia, and the Philippines to shift away from Thai rice. Additional pressure comes from United States (US) tariffs and the comparatively high price of Thai rice, further dampening the country’s competitiveness in international markets.

2. Weekly Pricing

Weekly Rice Pricing Important Exporters (USD/kg)

Yearly Change in Rice Pricing Important Exporters (W19 2024 to W19 2025) 

India

In W19, India's wholesale rice prices remained stable week-on-week (WoW) at USD 0.65 per kilogram (kg) but rose 1.56% month-on-month (MoM) as domestic supply tightened due to delayed monsoons and droughts in key states like Uttar Pradesh and Punjab, which raised concerns over yield reductions. Strong export demand from Bangladesh and Sri Lanka, which faced local shortages, contributed to the upward pressure. India's rice shipments to Bangladesh increased by 15% YoY in Q1-2025. Global supply constraints from weaker harvests in major exporters such as Vietnam and Thailand further elevated India's role in international markets, supporting continued price firmness.

Vietnam

In W19, Vietnamese rice prices remained unchanged WoW but declined by 11.48% MoM to USD 0.54/kg. This drop was mainly due to peak harvest activity in regions like Trà Vinh, which led to a temporary surplus in the domestic market. A trader in Ho Chi Minh City mentioned that while the government's decision to buy rice from reserves provided support, overall demand remained weak, and trading activity was minimal. According to the Ministry of Agriculture and Environment, Vietnam exported rice worth USD 1.75 billion in the first four months of 2025, down 14.3% YoY. The decline in export value was due to a drop in the average export price of other countries.

United States

In W19, US rice prices held steady both WoW and MoM at USD 0.77/kg, but declined 3.75% YoY. This decline is due to a significant increase in production for MY 2024/25, with total output estimated at around 8.6 mmt, reflecting a 3% rise from the previous year. The boost in supply has alleviated upward pressure on prices. Moreover, the global rice market has experienced a broad price decline, particularly from major exporters like India and Thailand, making US rice less competitive internationally. As a result, export demand has weakened, further pressuring US rice prices despite stable domestic consumption. The combination of higher domestic production and reduced international competitiveness due to lower global benchmarks has been the primary driver of the annual price drop.

3. Actionable Recommendations

Diversify Export Markets and Promote Value-Added Products

Exporting countries such as Thailand, Vietnam, and the US should diversify their rice export strategies in response to declining demand from traditional buyers and increased price competition, particularly from India. Targeting under-served markets like Latin America or Central Asia and investing in value-added rice products, such as fortified, parboiled, or ready-to-cook rice, can help increase competitiveness and improve export margins. As Thailand faces a 30% drop in Q1-2025 exports and Vietnam’s export value declines by over 14%, expanding to new markets and product types becomes essential to offset losses and reduce reliance on low-margin, bulk rice exports.

Support Farmers Amid Profit Margin Pressure

Governments in major Asian rice-producing countries should implement support mechanisms to protect farmers from the financial strain caused by oversupply and falling prices. These measures could include direct price support, input subsidies (for fertilizers or irrigation), or incentives to shift toward higher-value rice varieties such as organic, aromatic, or fortified rice. With Asia accounting for nearly 90% of global rice production, sustained pressure on profit margins could lead to reduced planting in future seasons, risking food security and rural livelihoods. Proactive policies will help maintain agricultural stability and support the long-term sustainability of rice farming.

Expand Strategic Imports While Prices Are Low

Countries that rely heavily on rice imports, particularly in Africa, the Middle East, and parts of Asia, should take advantage of the current global price slump by securing long-term import contracts or increasing reserve stockpiles. With Indian parboiled rice hitting a 22-month low and prices in Thailand and Vietnam dropping to multi-year lows, importers are in a strong position to negotiate favorable terms. This strategy ensures food security at lower costs and helps stabilize domestic markets against future price volatility. Given that prices are expected to remain low through the end of 2025, acting now could yield significant economic and strategic benefits for food-importing nations.

Sources: Tridge, Agro Link, UkrAgroConsult