1. Weekly News

Brazil

Brazil’s Coffee Output Edges Up as Robusta Gains Offset Arabica Decline

Brazil’s coffee production for 2025/26 is forecast at 65 million bags, a slight 0.5% increase from the previous year. Arabica output is expected to fall to 40.9 million 60-kilogram (kg) bags due to adverse weather affecting production, while Robusta/Conilon production is set to rise to 24.1 million bags thanks to favorable conditions and improved irrigation. Exports are projected to decline by 6% to 41.7 million bags.

Brazil’s 2025/26 Coffee Harvest Starts Slow Amid Rain and High Humidity

The 2025/26 Brazilian coffee harvest is progressing slowly, with only 7% of production collected by mid-May. This figure is below last year’s 10% and the five-year average of 10%. Persistent rain and high humidity have hindered harvesting activities, especially in Conilon/Robusta regions like Espírito Santo, Bahia, and Rondônia, as well as in some Arabica areas in Minas Gerais. Conilon harvesting reached 11%, lagging behind last year’s 16%, while Arabica is even more delayed at 4%, due to slower fruit maturation and cautious producer decisions. Despite these delays, Safras & Mercado maintains a positive outlook for a strong Conilon crop, with future weather conditions key to harvest progress and overall production.

Brazil’s Coffee Exports Reach 13.81 Million Bags in Early 2025 with Record Revenue

From Jan-25 to Apr-25, Brazil exported 13.81 million 60-kg bags of coffee, generating a record revenue of USD 5.23 billion despite a 15.5% drop in volume compared to the same period in 2024. Arabica coffee dominated exports with 84.8% of the volume (11.71 million bags), followed by Robusta/Conilon (5.8%) and soluble coffee (0.2%). The average price per bag was USD 382.44. Key buyers included the US, Germany, Italy, Japan, and Belgium. For the 2024/25 crop year (July-April), exports totaled 40 million bags, up 1.52% YoY, while revenue surged 56.31% to USD 12.44 billion, highlighting strong price gains despite stable volumes.

Brazil Adopts Global Specialty Coffee Standard to Strengthen Leadership

Brazil has officially adopted the Coffee Value Assessment (CVA) system, developed by the Specialty Coffee Association (SCA), as its national protocol for evaluating specialty coffee, becoming the second country after Colombia to do so. Signed by the Brazilian Specialty Coffee Association (BSCA) and the SCA, the agreement marks a strategic shift toward a more comprehensive and inclusive quality evaluation that considers physical, sensory, and extrinsic attributes. Alongside the protocol, the partnership includes a major educational initiative to expand access to internationally recognized training and certifications across the coffee value chain. With full technical support from the SCA, the move reinforces Brazil’s global leadership in specialty coffee and aims to promote greater transparency, innovation, and professional development across the sector.

Colombia

Colombian Coffee Outlook Brightens with Higher Production and Asian Demand

In the marketing year 2025/26, Colombian coffee production is projected to rise to 31 million bags (green bean equivalent), driven by high market prices that have encouraged farmers to invest more in crop management and inputs. Exports are also forecast to grow, particularly roasted and soluble coffee, fueled by increasing demand from expanding Asian markets.

El Salvador

El Salvador Coffee Sector Struggles Despite Modest Production Growth

El Salvador’s coffee production is forecast to rise slightly to 597,000 60-kg bags in 2025/26, up from 561,000 bags in 2024/25. However, growth remains constrained by climate risks, persistent labor shortages due to rural-urban migration, and high input costs. Despite a government seedling distribution program, many farmers lack the financial means to maintain new plantings, limiting the sector’s recovery potential amid the absence of a long-term strategy.

Ethiopia

Ethiopia Plans to Expand Coffee Exports to Russia Amid Growing Interest from Russian Companies

Ethiopia’s ambassador to Russia stated that Ethiopia, known as the birthplace of coffee, is focusing on commercial cultivation and large-scale production of coffee. The ambassador highlighted noticeable interest from Russian coffee importers who are visiting Ethiopia and meeting with partners to increase export volumes to the Russian market. Ethiopian authorities view this as a positive and progressive opportunity to expand their export markets.

Indonesia

Indonesia's Coffee Output and Exports Expected to Rise in 2025/26

Indonesia’s coffee production is forecast to grow by 5% to 11.3 million 60-kg bags in 2025/26, supported by favorable weather and increased input use. Exports are expected to rise by 7% to 6.5 million bags, while domestic consumption is projected at 4.8 million bags amid weak consumer spending. The United States (US) remains a key market for Indonesian green bean exports.

Indonesia Aims to Become the World’s Second-Largest Coffee Exporter

Rich in fertile land and diverse coffee varieties, Indonesia seeks to boost its position in the global coffee market and become the world’s second-largest coffee exporter behind Brazil. Despite producing an average of 700,000 metric tons (mt) annually, Indonesia trails regional competitor Vietnam, which produces 1.8 million metric tons (mmt) per year. At the World of Coffee Jakarta exhibition, the Coordinating Minister emphasized the need for government and private sector collaboration to fully unlock Indonesia’s coffee potential and increase production. With 54 registered Geographical Indications covering Arabica, Robusta, Liberica, and Excelsa coffees, Indonesia exported 342,220 mt worth USD 1.49 billion from Jan-24 to Sep-24. The Coordinating Minister expressed optimism about production growth, citing favorable prices and improved management as key factors to surpass Vietnam in the near future.

Kenya

Kenya’s Coffee Output Rises with Better Practices and Expansion Efforts

Kenya’s coffee production is forecast to grow by 13.3% to 850,000 60-kg bags in 2025/26, driven by improved farm practices and strong prices. Modest expansion in planted area is expected, supported by a government program targeting both traditional and emerging regions. Urban land conversion has slowed, helping stabilize planted area. Exports are projected to rise by 10% to 840,000 bags, while domestic consumption is also projected to increase by 6.9%.

Kenya Invests USD 15.5 Million to Boost Coffee Production and Support Farmers

Kenya is investing USD 15.5 million (KES 2 billion) to import coffee pulping machines to revive its coffee industry and increase production from 50,000 to over 150,000 mt annually. The government also approved additional funds for seedlings, fertilizers, and timely farmer payments. The National Youth Opportunities Towards Advancement (NYOTA) Project will train and fund one million young entrepreneurs to grow agribusiness. Women and youth are central to these efforts, aiming for sustainable growth and job creation in the coffee sector.

Nicaragua

Nicaragua Forecasts Stronger Coffee Harvest Despite Persistent Challenges

Nicaragua’s coffee production is projected to reach 2.58 million 60-kg bags in 2025/26, supported by higher input use and favorable weather expectations. This follows a recovery to historical averages in 2024/25 after El Niño disruptions. However, long-term credit limitations, labor shortages, and regional export delays continue to weigh on the sector.

2. Weekly Pricing

Weekly Coffee Pricing Important Exporters (USD/kg)

Yearly Change in Coffee Pricing Important  Exporters (W20 2024 to W20 2025) 

Brazil

In W20, Brazil's commodity price surged to USD 11.72/kg, marking a 19.23% increase week-over-week (WoW) from W19 (USD 9.83/kg). This sharp rise suggests a possible short-term supply disruption, such as adverse weather, logistical issues, or intensified export demand. On a month-over-month (MoM) basis, prices climbed 13.68%, continuing an upward trend from W17 2025 (USD 10.31/kg), indicating sustained market pressure likely driven by a combination of reduced availability, increased production costs, or a depreciating Brazilian real that makes exports more competitive but raises domestic prices. Compared to W20 2024, prices have nearly doubled, registering an 86.62% year-over-year (YoY) increase, reflecting deeper structural shifts—possibly smaller harvest areas, global supply deficits, or higher input costs. Overall, this strong and persistent price growth signals a tightening market that may prompt importers and domestic buyers to accelerate procurement amid concerns of further volatility.

Colombia

In W20, Colombia's commodity price reached USD 10.48/kg, recording a 7.38% WoW increase from W19 (USD 9.76/kg). This rise suggests renewed short-term demand, likely fueled by export activity or internal logistical challenges affecting supply chains. On a MoM basis, prices rose by 5.33%, continuing a moderate upward trend seen from W17 2025 (USD 9.95/kg). This sustained growth may reflect seasonal tightening in supply or rising input costs. Compared to W20 2024, the YoY increase stands at 32.16%, pointing to more fundamental market pressures such as reduced output, currency depreciation, or stronger international demand. While less steep than Brazil's surge, Colombia’s steady price climb highlights a firming market that may push buyers to secure contracts early, especially if regional supply issues persist or demand from neighboring countries intensifies.

Vietnam

In W20, Vietnam’s commodity price settled at USD 4.88/kg, reflecting a 1.41% WoW decline from W19 (USD 4.95/kg). This marks the third consecutive weekly decrease, indicating a possible cooling in short-term demand or improved domestic supply conditions. On a MoM basis, prices dropped 2.98%, suggesting that earlier price pressures may have eased—potentially due to harvest inflows or reduced export activity. Despite the recent softening, the YoY increase of 23.54% compared to W20 2024 (USD 3.95/kg) shows that structural upward pressure remains, possibly linked to input cost inflation or shifts in trade patterns. Buyers may find temporary relief in the current dip, but the elevated YoY level signals a tighter long-term market outlook that warrants close monitoring of production and export trends.

3. Actionable Recommendations 

Accelerate Contract Negotiations to Hedge Against Volatile Pricing

Given the steep YoY price increases inBrazil, Colombia, and Vietnam, buyers should lock in forward contracts or long-term supply agreements before further spikes occur. Brazil’s prices are rising fastest due to weather-related delays and Robusta's slower harvest, while Colombia and Vietnam reflect supply tightness and strong global demand. Importers should diversify sourcing across lower-cost regions like Vietnam, Indonesia, and Nicaragua to mitigate rising procurement costs.

Support Mechanization and Training in Supply-Challenged Regions

Countries like El Salvador and Nicaragua face chronic issues such as labor shortages, credit access, and inconsistent replanting efforts. Private sector players and nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) should co-invest in mechanization, micro-financing, and youth engagement programs similar to Kenya’s NYOTA project. Supporting climate-resilient farming models in Central America will be crucial for securing mid-term supply chains.

Tap into Specialty Market Momentum with Brazil and Kenya

Brazil’s adoption of the CVA system and Kenya’s investment in pulping and youth training signal a push toward premiumization and traceability. Roasters and specialty coffee brands should partner with Kenyan cooperatives and Brazilian exporters certified under CVA, promoting high-quality, transparent supply chains that justify premium retail pricing and meet sustainability goals.

Sources: Tridge, Indonesia Expat, Food Business, Kvedomosti, Portal do Agonegocio, USDA