1. Weekly News

Mexico

Zacatecas Milk Sector Hampered by Infrastructure and Marketing Barriers

Despite being one of Mexico’s top milk-producing states, Zacatecas faces serious challenges due to poor infrastructure for milk collection and commercialization. In 2023, the state produced nearly 195 million liters (L) of milk, or 1.46% of the national total. With producers averaging 33 L per cow daily, supply often exceeds demand, pushing prices down. While Liconsa buys 2.8 million L monthly, producers still face surpluses of up to 5,000 L weekly. Hopes rest on the “Leche del Bienestar” initiative to improve profitability, but without better logistics, overproduction continues to weigh heavily on small and medium-sized producers.

Poland

Milk Collection in Poland Continues to Rise in Mar-25

In Mar-25, milk collection reached 1.17 billion L, up 12.5% month-on-month (MoM) and 2.2% year-on-year (YoY). The first quarter of the year(Q1-2025) saw 3.33 billion L collected, 1% more than in Q1-2024. In 2024, annual milk collection rose 3.8%, exceeding the usual 2% increase. Most of the milk came from Wielkopolskie, Kujawsko-Pomorskie, and Warmińsko-Mazurskie, while Podlaskie received 607.6 million L from other regions.

Poland Drives EU Dairy Growth Amid Stable Global Demand

Poland leads growth in the European Union (EU) dairy sector despite declines in other key producers. Global dairy prices increased by 25% YoY by Mar-25, while EU prices stabilized. Poland’s dairy revenues rose 7% in 2024, with net profits nearly tripling. Although rising labor costs may pressure margins, the sector’s financial outlook remains stable due to steady global demand.

Russia

Russia Saw 2.8% Growth in May-25 Milk Sales

As of May 5, 2025, daily milk sales by Russian agricultural enterprises rose 2.8% YoY to 59.4 thousand tons. Key contributors included Tatarstan, Udmurtia, Krasnodar, Voronezh, and Kirov. Average daily milk yield per cow reached 23.5 kilograms (+0.9 kg YoY), with top regions exceeding 28 kg per cow.

Turkey

Turkey’s Commercial Milk Collection and Dairy Production Increased in Mar-25

In Mar-25 Turkey’s commercial dairy farms collected 1,015,647 tons of cow’s milk, marking a 2.9% increase compared to the same time last year. For the Jan-25 to Mar-25 period, milk collection rose by 1.4%. Drinking milk production grew by 6.2% in March, while yogurt production decreased by 1%. Cheese production increased by 0.9%, and butter production rose by 1.8%. Compared to the previous month, milk collection increased by 13.2%, and drinking milk production grew by 11.9%.

Ukraine

Uncertainty Looms Over Ukraine–EU Dairy Trade Rules

The future of Ukraine’s dairy trade with the EU remains unclear with the upcoming expiration of the current Autonomous Trade Preferences (ATP) on June 5, 2025. Experts suggest a return to 2021 quota-based trade is likely if no agreement is reached. Estimated annual quotas may include 10,000 tons for fresh and condensed milk, 5,000 tons for milk powder, and 3,000 tons for butter. Imports will require licensing or follow a “first come, first served” model. Cheese and most whey exports will remain duty-free. Milk powder is particularly at risk, with 2024 exports already triple the quota limit.

Ukraine Sees Growth in Micro Dairy Processors Despite the War

Nearly 80% of all registered dairy processing businesses in Ukraine are micro-enterprises with fewer than 10 employees. As of 2025, there are 524 such processors, and their number continues to grow. The sector's resilience highlights the importance of supporting small producers. Ukraine has aligned its food safety legislation with EU standards and implemented a Raw Milk Control Program. Recently, user-friendly guidelines were published to help small and primary dairy producers comply with safety and quality regulations.

Challenges Await Ukrainian Powdered Milk Exports Amid EU Quota Restrictions

Global prices for powdered milk remain stable or are rising, but this is unlikely to strengthen Ukrainian powdered milk prices. Most Ukrainian powdered milk exports recently went to the EU, but from June 5, export opportunities there will be severely limited by strict quotas. The European Commission will allow only 2,900 tons of powdered milk products duty-free until year-end—a volume smaller than Ukraine’s typical monthly exports. As a result, Ukrainian exporters will need to shift their focus from the EU market back to traditional buyers in Africa and Asia starting this June.

United States

US Milk Production to Rise in 2026 Despite Price Pressure

United States (US) milk output is projected to reach 227.9 billion pounds (lbs) in 2026, up from 225.9 billion lbs in 2024. Growth stems from larger dairy herds and slightly improved yields. However, prices may fall as supply outpaces demand, with Class III and IV milk expected to average USD 21.15 per hundredweight (cwt). Domestic consumption will grow, but global competition and shifting demand will reduce fat-based exports, though whey-based exports may rise. Butter will lead the anticipated increase in imports.

2. Weekly Pricing

Weekly Powdered Milk Pricing Important Exporters (USD/kg)

Yearly Change in Powdered Milk Pricing Important  Exporters (W20 2024 to W20 2025) 

Belgium

In W20, whole milk powder prices in Belgium dropped to USD 3.90/kg, marking a 1.76% decline WoW and a 2.74% drop MoM, though still up 5.41% YoY. The recent weekly and monthly decreases suggest a temporary market correction, likely due to slowed purchasing activity as buyers waited for clearer pricing signals after sustained highs. However, the YoY increase points to persistent structural issues, such as reduced milk production, elevated feed and energy costs, and tightening environmental regulations, that continue to restrict supply. These factors, combined with steady international demand, are keeping overall price levels higher than the previous year, indicating that the current dip may be short-lived.

Netherlands 

In W20, whole milk powder prices in the Netherlands fell to USD 2.36/kg, showing a 2.88% decline WoW and a 2.07% drop MoM, though still 5.36% higher YoY. The short-term price decline may reflect slight easing in local spot demand or buyer hesitation after recent peaks. However, overall market conditions remain tight. Milk production in Q1-2025 dropped by 3% due to reduced herd size, farm profitability issues, labor shortages, and climate-related pressures. These factors are mirrored in neighboring Belgium. Despite this, prices remain above last year’s levels, supported by firm export demand from China and Southeast Asia. Ongoing concerns over Foot-and-Mouth Disease (FMD) in Europe may also limit supply and add upward pressure moving forward, suggesting the current dip could be temporary.

France

In W20, whole milk powder prices in France declined to USD 2.76/kg, down 1.78% WoW and 1.08% MoM, with a sharp 19.77% drop YoY. The YoY decline reflects a correction from last year’s high prices driven by tighter supply conditions. Despite a 3.1% fall in milk production in Q1-2025, due to herd reductions and bluetongue virus outbreaks, recent price drops suggest weak domestic demand and strong competition from German exports are weighing on the market. Although dairy processors are increasing purchases in preparation for the summer season, and some short-term logistical disruptions have pushed prices up recently, these factors haven't been strong enough to sustain upward momentum. A slight increase in conventional milk output, as producers shift away from organic, has also modestly eased supply constraints.

3. Actionable Recommendations 

Strengthen EU Export Competitiveness Amid Tight Supply

Poland’s leading role in EU dairy growth should be leveraged by diversifying export destinations beyond the EU, particularly in Asia and Middle East and North Africa (MENA), where demand for dairy remains strong. Policymakers and cooperatives should invest in value-added dairy products and branding strategies to differentiate EU exports in saturated global markets. At the same time, mitigating input cost inflation through subsidies or cooperative purchasing models will help preserve profitability amid labor cost increases.

Expand Dairy Processing and Value-Added Production in Turkey

Turkey’s steady rise in milk collection and dairy output signals an opportunity to expand value-added categories such as specialty cheese, infant formula, and lactose-free products. Encouraging investment in regional dairy clusters and export processing zones could attract foreign buyers and enhance export readiness. Programs to improve yield per cow and sustainability practices will further support the industry’s competitiveness.

Encourage Innovation and Resilience in Global Dairy Markets

The overall market trend shows continued demand growth, but persistent structural challenges like labor shortages, climate impacts, disease outbreaks, and geopolitical trade shifts, underscore the need for resilient strategies. Governments and dairy associations should foster innovation in yield enhancement, climate-adapted feed technologies, and traceability solutions. Exporters should maintain agility by developing contingency trade routes and digital platforms to access non-traditional markets.

Sources: Tridge, Agro Portal, Agro Times UA, Dairy News Today, Ekonomi, Haberler, Farmer PL, Gospodarz, Milk News, Milk UA, TGRT Harber