1. Weekly News

India

India’s Rice Exports Poised to Increase as Prices Ease and Trade Talks Advance

India, the world’s top rice exporter, has raised hopes of stabilizing prices in the volatile global market as an early and above-average monsoon season promises favorable conditions for rice cultivation. After a recent 10 to 12% price spike amid India-Pakistan tensions, rice export prices have begun to ease, with Indian rates near their lowest in nearly two years due to Indonesia’s suspension of rice imports. Premium Indian rice varieties sell internationally at USD 1,200 to 1,700 per metric ton (mt), while other types stand about USD 50 lower than comparable Thai and Vietnamese rice. India’s 5% broken parboiled and white rice prices held steady last week, and exporters anticipate rising demand and increased exports in 2025.

Indian and Pakistani rice exports remain vital for Southeast Asian countries like Malaysia, Cambodia, and Laos, as well as markets in the Middle East and Central Asia. India’s removal of the minimum export price for basmati rice last year has helped farmers access global markets, while hopes for a United States (US)-India trade deal grow as India’s Commerce Minister leads talks in Washington amid a temporary US tariff suspension, potentially influencing future export opportunities.

Japan

Japan Released Rice Reserves to Counter Price Surge Amid Soaring Consumer Demand

Due to increased consumer demand for affordable grains, Japan’s Agriculture Minister announced that the government is ready to release additional rice reserves following emergency retail distributions over the weekend. In a sharp policy shift, authorities began directly selling stockpiled rice to retailers last week, aiming to offer 5-kilogram (kg) bags at around USD 14, well below prevailing market prices. Designed to ease pressure from rising rice costs, the move involves selling 80 thousand mt of 2021-harvested rice through no-bid contracts. The ministry has already received around 1,300 applications, prompting it to suspend further submissions from June 2 due to overwhelming demand that risks depleting the allocated stock. The measure aims to bring overall rice prices down.

Philippines

Philippines Seeks Rice Import Diversification Amid Vietnam Price Surge and Supply Risks

The Philippines relies heavily on Vietnam for rice imports, with the latter supplying nearly 90% of the country’s total rice shipments, despite the former’s ongoing efforts to diversify sources. However, Vietnam’s dominance presents risks in supply disruptions, mainly as its rice prices recently surged to a three-month high due to strong global and domestic demand. Through the Agriculture Secretary, the Philippine government is working with private importers to secure procurement deals with countries such as India, Pakistan, Cambodia, Myanmar, Indonesia, and Thailand to ensure supply stability and maintain competitive prices.

To address affordability, the Philippines reduced rice import tariffs from 35% to 15% in 2024, declaring a food security emergency. These measures helped bring inflation down to its lowest level since 2019 and opened the door for potential interest rate cuts. For 2025, the Philippines expects rice imports to fall below 4.5 million metric tons (mmt), significantly lower than the United States Department of Agriculture's (USDA) 5.4 mmt forecast, while domestic production is projected to hit a record 20.46 mmt.

Thailand

Thailand’s Rice Exports Dropped 27% YoY in Q1-25 Due to Indian Competition and Strong Baht

Thailand’s rice exports from Jan-25 to Mar-25 dropped 27% year-on-year (YoY) to 1.8 mmt as increased Indian rice availability and a stronger Thai baht (THB) intensified competition, according to the USDA. In response, the Thai Rice Exporters Association and Ministry of Commerce revised their full-year export target downward to 7.5 mmt, down from 9.8 mmt in 2024. The USDA noted that relatively expensive Thai white rice experienced rough market conditions. However, prices across all rice grades have shown an upward trend since April 15, particularly for premium Hom Mali rice, which remains in high demand amid global market uncertainty. Despite overall export declines, shipments of Hom Mali and other aromatic rice varieties to the US rose in Q1-25, driven by traders accelerating purchases ahead of potential tariff hikes and growing rice demand among Hispanic consumers.

2. Weekly Pricing

Weekly Rice Pricing Important Exporters (USD/kg)

Yearly Change in Rice Pricing Important Exporters (W22 2024 to W22 2025)

India

In W22, India’s wholesale rice prices increased slightly by 1.56% week-on-week (WoW) to USD 0.65/kg. While the recent easing in export prices put downward pressure on prices, the domestic market saw mild upward pressure due to early and above-average monsoon rains improving crop prospects and farmer confidence. This favorable monsoon has raised expectations of a strong 2025 harvest, encouraging some price firmness locally. Moreover, India’s removal of the minimum export price for basmati rice and ongoing trade negotiations with the US suggests a potential for expanding export opportunities, which supports domestic price stability. Thus, while international prices have softened, domestic supply optimism and export market potential have combined to push wholesale rice prices slightly higher in India.

Vietnam

In W22, Vietnamese rice prices rose slightly by 1.82% WoW and 3.70% month-on-month (MoM), reaching USD 0.56/kg. This modest price increase is primarily due to tightening supply conditions amid steady demand. Seasonal factors such as delayed harvesting or lower-than-expected yields in certain key rice-producing regions likely reduced immediate availability. Meanwhile, export demand from major buyers remained stable or increased slightly. Furthermore, rising input costs like fuel and fertilizers and logistical challenges in transportation contributed to upward price pressure.

United States

In W22, US rice prices held steady at USD 0.77/kg WoW and MoM but dropped 3.75% compared to the previous year. This YoY decrease is due to better production conditions in key rice-growing states such as Arkansas and California, which increased domestic supply and reduced upward pressure on prices. Unlike 2024, when droughts and transportation issues along the Mississippi River disrupted logistics and raised costs, the 2025 season saw fewer such problems, resulting in smoother supply chain operations. Furthermore, competition from major exporters like Vietnam and India, offering rice at more competitive prices, dampened US export demand. The combination of higher domestic supply and softer international demand led to the overall price decline despite stable rice consumption within the US market.

3. Actionable Recommendations

Diversify Import Sources to Reduce Supply Risks and Price Volatility

Countries like the Philippines, which rely heavily on a single supplier, should intensify efforts to diversify rice import sources. By actively negotiating and establishing import agreements with multiple countries such as India, Pakistan, Cambodia, Myanmar, Indonesia, and Thailand, importers can mitigate risks linked to supply disruptions, price spikes, or geopolitical tensions affecting one source. This diversification helps stabilize domestic markets and protects consumers from sudden price shocks while fostering competitive pricing among suppliers, which can benefit affordability.

Leverage Favorable Weather Conditions to Boost Domestic Production and Export Capacity

India’s early and above-average monsoon season offers a valuable opportunity to increase rice production. Governments and agribusinesses must accelerate support programs by providing quality seeds, irrigation infrastructure, and crop advisory services to help farmers maximize yields from favorable growing conditions. Increasing domestic output stabilizes supply, controls inflation, and strengthens India’s position as a reliable global rice supplier. This strengthens India’s leverage to negotiate better trade deals, such as the anticipated US-India trade agreement, potentially expanding export volumes and market access.

Implement Strategic Stock Management and Price Stabilization Policies

Governments facing volatile rice prices, like Japan, should continue proactive stock management by releasing reserves strategically to stabilize retail prices during demand surges or supply shortages. Japan’s direct sale of stockpiled rice at below-market prices is a good example of calming inflationary pressure and protecting consumers. Similarly, other rice-importing countries could adopt flexible reserve release mechanisms and engage in forward contracts with exporters to hedge against future price volatility. This approach helps smooth price fluctuations and ensures food security while maintaining market confidence.

Sources: Tridge, Agro Spectrum India, Department of Agriculture PH, Invezz, Ukr Agro Consult, Vietnam Biz