1. Weekly News

Brazil

AgRural Raises Brazil 2024/25 Soybean Forecast to 169 MMT on Improved Yields

Privately owned Brazilian agricultural consultancy AgRural raised its forecast for Brazil’s 2024/25 soybean crops due to improved yields in several states. AgRural increased its estimate for the harvested soybean crop by 1.3 million metric tons (mmt) to 169 mmt.

China

China’s Soybean Imports Dropped Sharply Amid Weak Pork Demand

China, the world’s largest soybean importer, significantly cut its soybean purchases, with Apr-25 imports from the United States (US) falling 43.7% year-on-year (YoY) to 1.38 mmt and imports from Brazil declining 22.2% YoY to 4.6 mmt. This drop reflects weaker demand from China’s pork industry, which heavily relies on soybeans for animal feed. Despite this slowdown, Arkansas farmers plan to plant 3 million acres of soybeans in 2025, keeping Arkansas the 10th largest soybean-producing state in the US.

Nigeria

Nigeria Emerges as Competitive Soybean Supplier Amidst US-China Trade Tariff Reductions

Amid global trade tensions and China’s tariffs on US agricultural imports, Nigeria is emerging as a potential alternative supplier to the world’s largest soybean importer. The US reduced tariffs on Chinese goods from 145% to 30%, while China lowered levies on American imports from 125% to 10%. In 2024, the US exported USD 12.4 billion of soybeans to China. If Nigeria can boost production and capture even a fraction of that market, it could transform rural farming economies.

United States

US Soybean Planting at 84% with 67% Rated Good to Excellent as of W22

As of June 1, 2025, 84% of the soybean crop across the top US soybean-growing states had been planted, surpassing the five-year average of 80%, according to the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). Soybean emergence in these key states reached 63%, ahead of the five-year average of 57%. In the first crop condition ratings of the season across these top states, 67% of the crop was rated good to excellent, 28% fair, and 5% poor to very poor, indicating a generally strong start to the 2025 soybean season in major growing regions.

Iowa Soybean Planting Nears Completion With 81% Rated Good to Excellent as of W22

As of the week ending June 1, 2025, the USDA reported that Iowa experienced dry weather with isolated showers, offering 5.4 days suitable for fieldwork. Farmers made significant progress, planting 96% of the expected soybean area, with 79% of the crop already emerging, 10 days ahead of last year and 4 days ahead of the 5-year average. Key activities included soybean planting, hay cutting, and crop spraying. The soybean crop condition was rated 81% good to excellent, reflecting a strong early-season outlook.

Vietnam

Vietnam Signs USD 400 Million Soybean Deal With Iowa Cooperative

Vietnam has agreed to purchase USD 400 million worth of soybeans and soybean meal from an Iowa-based farmer cooperative in 2025 as part of a broader set of non-binding agreements totaling USD 800 million in agricultural goods, including corn, pork, and dried distillers grain. Signed during W22, the deals highlight Vietnam's growing role as a key US soybeans market driven by its young population and expanding economy.

2. Weekly Pricing

Weekly Soybean Pricing Important Exporters (USD/kg)

Yearly Change in Soybean Pricing Important Exporters (W22 2024 to W22 2025) 

Brazil

In W22, Brazil’s soybean prices remained unchanged week-on-week (WoW) but increased 2.70% month-on-month (MoM) to USD 0.38 per kilogram (kg). This rise was mainly due to ongoing concerns over weather conditions in key growing regions, such as Mato Grosso and Paraná, where dry spells threatened crop development, limiting supply expectations. Moreover, strong export demand, particularly from China, the world’s largest soybean importer, helped support prices despite stable domestic production forecasts. Furthermore, currency fluctuations, with a weaker Brazilian real against the US dollar, made Brazilian soybeans more competitive internationally, contributing to the MoM price increase.

United States

In W22, US soybean prices declined 2.17% WoW, reaching USD 0.45/kg, down from USD 0.46/kg the previous week. This decrease is due to the solid progress in soybean planting and favorable crop conditions across key US-producing states. As of June 1, 2025, 84% of the soybean crop had been planted, above the five-year average of 80%, with emergence at 63%, also ahead of the average. Moreover, 67% of the crop was rated good to excellent, signaling a healthy start to the season. In Iowa, planting was nearly complete at 96%, with 81% of the crop rated good to excellent, further supporting expectations of a robust harvest.

Argentina

In W22, Argentina's soybean prices remained steady WoW at USD 0.39/kg, marking a 2.63% MoM increase from USD 0.38/kg in W19. This price stability came despite significant agricultural challenges, as heavy rains and flooding, particularly in northern Buenos Aires province, where over 260 millimetres (mm) of rain fell within 24 hours, caused severe flooding, evacuations, and delays in the soybean harvest. These adverse weather conditions hampered harvesting operations and raised concerns about potential crop losses. Nevertheless, the future dry weather forecast provided optimism that harvest activities could soon resume, helping stabilize prices amid uncertainty.

Uruguay

In W22, Uruguay’s soybean prices remained unchanged WoW, MoM, and YoY at USD 0.41/kg, reflecting a market in equilibrium. This stability is supported by Uruguay’s estimated 2024/25 soybean production of around 3.5 mmt, with average yields near 3.2 metric tons (mt) per hectare (ha), following favorable weather conditions throughout the growing season. Export volumes remained consistent, with Uruguay shipping approximately 2.8 mmt of soybeans in the first half of the year (H1 2025), mainly to China and other Asian markets. Furthermore, no significant fluctuations occurred in currency exchange rates, and the Uruguayan peso remained relatively stable against the US dollar, helping maintain steady input costs and export competitiveness.

3. Actionable Recommendations

Accelerate Adoption of Drought-Resistant Soybean Varieties in Brazil

Brazilian agricultural research institutes and seed companies should prioritize developing and distributing drought- and heat-tolerant soybean varieties, especially targeting key growing states like Mato Grosso and Paraná, where dry spells threaten yields. Farmers should be encouraged and supported through extension programs to switch to these resilient varieties in upcoming planting seasons. This can mitigate yield losses during dry conditions and heat stress, stabilize production volumes and export capacity, and help sustain farmer incomes despite increasingly volatile weather patterns.

Expand Nigerian Soybean Production and Export Infrastructure

Nigerian agricultural authorities and private sector players should invest in scaling up soybean cultivation by providing improved seeds, training on best agronomic practices, and access to finance for smallholder farmers. At the same time, develop and modernize export infrastructure, such as storage, logistics, and port facilities, to facilitate efficient shipment of soybeans to global markets, including the US. This could position Nigeria as a competitive alternative supplier amid changing US-China trade relations. It can also boost rural economies through increased production and export earnings and diversify global soybean supply chains, reducing reliance on a few major producers.

Strengthen US-Vietnam Agricultural Trade Partnerships

US agricultural cooperatives and trade bodies should capitalize on the recent USD 400 million soybean deal with Vietnam by enhancing market intelligence, streamlining export logistics, and fostering long-term contracts with Vietnamese importers. They should also collaborate with Vietnamese farmers and feed producers on joint initiatives to promote soy-based animal feed and improve supply chain transparency. These actions will secure stable export demand for US soybeans in a growing market, strengthen bilateral agricultural ties, open opportunities for other US commodities, and support Vietnam’s expanding feed and livestock sector, driving increased soybean consumption.

Sources: Tridge, Business Day, KTVO, Farm Progress, Radio Iowa, Stuttgart Daily Leader, Successful Farming