1. Weekly News

Moldova

Moldova's Sunflower Processing Collapses in 2024/25 as Raw Seed Exports Dominate

In the 2024/25 season, Moldova's sunflower processing sector has weakened significantly, with processed sunflower oil and meal exports dropping to just 32,331 metric tons (mt) from Jul-24 to Apr-25, down from over 300,000 mt in previous years. In contrast, sunflower seed exports hit a four-season high of 532,243 mt. Only 7.4% of total sunflower exports were processed in the 2024/25 season, a sharp decline from 48.2% in 2023/24 and 67.8% in 2022/23. Experts warn this shift toward raw material exports reflected a breakdown in the value chain, reducing added economic value and undermining industrial development. Despite recognizing sunflower oil as the most affected industry, Moldovan authorities excluded it from key support programs.

Spain

Spain's Sunflower Oil Consumption Rises in 2024 Despite Overall Decline in Edible Oil Intake

In 2024, Spain's per capita edible oil consumption fell 3.3% year-on-year (YoY) to 9.54 liters (L), according to the Annual Food Consumption Report (ICAE). However, sunflower oil bucked the trend, increasing by 0.21 L to an average of 3.46 L per person, making it the most consumed oil. In contrast, olive oil consumption declined significantly, particularly regular olive oil, which dropped 12.6% YoY to 2.78 L per person.

United States

US Sunflower Oil Output Set to Climb Sharply in 2025 as Stocks Tighten and Demand Grows

The United States (US) sunflower production is expected to surge in 2025, with planted acreage projected to rise 49% YoY to 1.07 million acres, according to the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). Most of this expansion is in oil-type sunflowers, with production forecast to reach 1.61 billion pounds (lbs), an increase of 70% from 2024. This increase comes amid historically tight seed stocks, which were down 59% YoY in Mar-25, and growing demand from crushers and bird food markets.

Domestic sunflower oil consumption is projected to rise to 681 million lbs in 2025/26, supported by a crush of 937 million lbs. Exports of sunflower oil are forecast at 85 million lbs, while sunflower meal usage is expected to grow to 518 million lbs. Despite higher production, ending seed stocks are only anticipated to modestly exceed the five-year average.

2. Weekly Pricing

Weekly Sunflower Oil Pricing Top Producers (USD/kg)

Yearly Change in Sunflower Oil Pricing Top Producers (W22 2024 to W22 2025) 

Russia

In W22, Russia's sunflower oil prices fell marginally by 0.89% week-on-week (WoW) to USD 1.11 per kilogram (kg), yet remained significantly higher YoY, up 23.33%. The annual increase reflects constrained sunflower seed supply due to adverse weather conditions and rising production costs. While the Russian government halved export duties in Apr-25, the impact on prices was limited by a simultaneous increase in the reference price, curbing downward momentum. Strong export performance, including an increase in shipments to Singapore in early 2025, underscores sustained international demand.

Ukraine

In W22, Ukraine's sunflower oil prices remained stable at USD 1.13/kg, unchanged WoW but down 0.88% month-on-month (MoM). The slight monthly decline reflects seasonal supply dynamics, as farmers released stored sunflower seeds earlier in the year, leading to localized oversupply. Additional downward pressure stemmed from intensified competition, particularly from increased Russian exports to Southeast Asia and China. Despite recent stability, prices remain volatile. Inflationary trends and food security concerns pushed retail prices higher in May-25, reflecting sensitivity to broader economic conditions. Sunflower oil prices rose 21.51% YoY, largely driven by the lingering impact of prior droughts that reduced yields and sustained robust global demand.

Argentina

In W22, Argentina's sunflower oil prices declined by 11.01% WoW to USD 0.97/kg, experiencing an 11.82% MoM drop. This sharp decrease is attributed to increased domestic supply as the ongoing sunflower harvest improved short-term availability, easing earlier concerns. Weaker demand from major export markets, driven by global economic uncertainties, also contributed to downward price pressure. Despite the recent decline, prices remain 5.43% higher YoY, reflecting the residual impact of poor weather conditions in 2023 that had reduced yields. Additionally, elevated global demand for vegetable oils and inflationary pressures in production and logistics have supported a higher price baseline. Prices may remain subdued in the short term if supply continues to grow and export demand stays soft. However, any weather disruptions, changes in global oilseed market dynamics, or recovery in external demand could reintroduce upward pressure in the medium term.

3. Actionable Recommendations

Prioritize Processing Sector Recovery Through Strategic Investment and Policy Advocacy

Given the collapse of Moldova’s sunflower processing sector, with only 7.4% of exports processed versus 67.8% two seasons ago, exporters and industry groups should advocate for the inclusion of sunflower oil in government support programs. At the same time, private and cooperative investors should prioritize revitalizing domestic processing capacity to recapture lost value addition. This can include targeted investment in mid-scale crushers, energy-efficient refining systems, and export certification infrastructure. Partnerships with European Union (EU) development agencies or agrifood investors could secure technical support and financing. Rebuilding the processing sector would stabilize rural employment, improve trade balances, and reduce reliance on low-margin raw seed exports.

Exploit Consumption Shifts to Increase Branded Retail Exports

With sunflower oil now the most consumed edible oil in Spain, exporters from the US, Ukraine, and Argentina should intensify efforts to supply value-branded retail products tailored to Spanish consumer preferences. Packaging innovation, such as non-drip bottles or sustainable materials, and health-oriented labeling (e.g., “high in vitamin E,” “non-GMO,” “light taste”) can help capture market share from declining olive oil consumption. Additionally, logistics coordination through Spanish ports and strategic alliances with Spanish retailers or private labels can ensure consistent supply amid price volatility.

Align Production Growth with Export Market Expansion

With US oil-type sunflower production expected to rise 70% YoY in 2025 and domestic stocks remaining tight, processors and traders should preemptively secure off-take agreements in growth markets such as Southeast Asia and North Africa, where sunflower oil demand is rising. Given elevated global prices and tight seed supplies in Russia and Ukraine, US exporters can position their oil as a premium, reliable alternative. Investing in refining and bottling partnerships domestically or near-shore (e.g., in Mexico or the Caribbean) will improve competitiveness in retail-ready segments and allow flexibility in targeting end-consumer or food service markets.

Sources: Tridge, Farm Progress, Ukr AgroConsult, Oleum Xauen