1. Weekly News

Brazil

Rainfall Delays Planting in Bagé, Aids Recovery in Western Border

Rio Grande do Sul will dedicate 970,194 hectares (ha) to rice cultivation for the 2024/25 harvest, aiming for an estimated productivity of 8.56 metric tons (mt) per ha. However, recent weather has created varied conditions across the region. The Bagé administrative region is experiencing delays in land preparation due to continuous heavy rainfall, while the Western Border's dams are fortunately recovering, with significant rainfall volumes received on May-25. In contrast, producers in the Pelotas region have proactively prepared some areas for the even later 2025/26 harvest. This includes completed leveling, wall construction, and ground cover planting, allowing for swift desiccation and immediate planting when the optimal sowing time arrives.

Paddy Rice Prices Crash in May 2025 After Two Years of Gains

After two years of consistent increases, paddy rice prices saw a substantial decline on May-25, according to the Center for Advanced Studies in Applied Economics (CEPEA). Prices have plummeted by 41% year-on-year (YoY), effectively returning to their May-22 levels. This sharp drop follows a period of significant growth, with prices rising 15% YoY on May-23 and a sharp 45% YoY increase on May-24. These previous increases made rice cultivation more appealing, leading producers to expand their cultivated areas. However, demand for rice didn't keep pace with this increased supply, creating a surplus that ultimately drove prices down.

Japan

Japan's Rice Crisis Deepens

Japan is experiencing a severe rice crisis, with prices doubling and national reserves plummeting to a record low of 1.53 million metric tons (mmt), 400 thousand mt short of demand. Standard 5-kilogram (kg) bags now exceed USD 28, and premium varieties like Koshihikari are reaching nearly USD 35. This dire situation stems from a 2023 heatwave that decimated yields, inflation driving consumers to rice as a cheap staple and a record influx of foreign residents in 2024. Although the government released emergency reserves on Feb-25, logistical hurdles, particularly in milling brown rice, have hampered effective distribution, leaving Japan significantly short of its most vital food.

Vietnam

Vietnam's Rice Export Volume Surged but Value Dropped in Early 2025

According to the Ministry of Agriculture and Environment, Vietnam exported an estimated 1.1 mmt of rice worth USD 573.1 million in May-25. This brings the total rice exports for the first five months of 2025 to 4.5 mmt, equivalent to USD 2.34 billion. This marks a 12.2% YoY increase in volume but an 8.9% YoY decrease in value due to an 18.7% drop in the average export price to USD 516/mt. The Philippines remained the largest export market with a 41.4% share, although export value to this market declined by 21.8%. In contrast, exports to Ivory Coast and China rose sharply, 50% and 83.7% respectively. Among all major markets, Bangladesh saw the highest surge in export value, while Indonesia experienced the steepest decline (down 97.9%). Notably, China's imports of Vietnamese rice have rebounded after stagnation.

2. Weekly Pricing

Weekly Rice Pricing Important Exporters (USD/kg)

Yearly Change in Rice Pricing Important Exporters (W23 2024 to W23 2025) 

India

In W23, India’s wholesale rice prices decreased slightly by 1.54% week-on-week (WoW) to USD 0.64/kg. The decline was mainly driven by a weaker Indian rupee, which made rice exports cheaper but dampened demand, especially from African markets. Moreover, abundant Indian stockpiles from a bumper harvest in 2024 and the recent lifting of export restrictions on broken rice in Mar-25 contributed to increased domestic supply and put downward pressure on prices. While global rice prices have generally softened due to ample Asian crops and increased supply, the specific drop in W23 in India was due to currency depreciation and muted export demand.

Vietnam

In W23, Vietnamese rice prices remained unchanged WoW but rose 3.70% month-on-month (MoM), reaching USD 0.56/kg. This modest rise was primarily due to tightening supply conditions. This was due to seasonal factors, such as delayed harvesting or lower-than-expected yields in certain key rice-producing regions, which limited the immediate availability of rice. Concurrently, export demand from major international buyers remained stable or slightly increased, further contributing to the upward price pressure. Furthermore, rising input costs, including those for fuel and fertilizers, along with logistical challenges in transportation, also played a role in pushing prices higher.

United States

In W23, US rice prices held steady at USD 0.77/kg WoW and MoM but dropped 3.75% compared to the previous year. This YoY decline is mainly due to improved production conditions in key rice-growing states like Arkansas and California, boosting domestic supply and easing price pressure. Unlike the 2024 season, when droughts and shipping disruptions on the Mississippi River drove up costs, the 2025 season experienced fewer such issues, leading to smoother supply chain operations. Furthermore, stiff competition from major exporters such as Vietnam and India, who offered rice at more competitive prices, curbed US export demand. The combination of higher domestic supply and weaker international demand ultimately led to this price decrease, even with stable rice consumption within the US.

3. Actionable Recommendations

Prioritize Supply Chain Modernization and Strategic Stockpile Management

Japan must urgently address its deep-rooted agricultural policy issues and distribution bottlenecks to stabilize its rice supply. This includes investing significantly in modernizing rice milling facilities and logistics infrastructure to ensure that emergency reserves can be rapidly processed and distributed. Furthermore, a comprehensive review of long-standing acreage reduction policies and protectionist tariffs is needed to foster a more flexible and responsive domestic market, potentially incentivizing larger-scale, efficient farming practices and exploring diversified import channels with clear, pre-negotiated terms.

Implement Data-Driven Cultivation and Market Diversification Strategies

Rio Grande do Sul farmers should adopt advanced climate monitoring and forecasting tools to optimize planting schedules and resource allocation. For areas facing a surplus and declining paddy prices, like Brazil's general market trend, producers should collaborate with agricultural cooperatives and government bodies to access real-time market demand data. This information should guide decisions on cultivated area adjustments for future seasons to avoid oversupply and explore opportunities for higher-value rice varieties or diversification into other crops to mitigate price volatility.

Enhance Value-Added Exports and Explore New Market Niches

Despite increasing export volumes, Vietnam and India are experiencing a decline in the average value of their rice exports. To counteract this, both nations should focus on strategies to enhance the value of their rice, such as investing in processing facilities for specialty rice varieties (e.g., fragrant, Japonica), organic certifications, or fortified rice. Simultaneously, actively pursue market diversification beyond traditional large buyers (like the Philippines for Vietnam and African markets for India), targeting high-value niche markets in regions with high purchasing power and leveraging trade agreements to secure preferential access.

Sources: Tridge, Agrolink, Canal Rural, NHK World, Tuoitre, Vietnam Biz