In W23 in the soybean landscape, the USDA adjusted upwards its forecast for global soybean ending stocks in the 2022/23 season to 101.32 million mt, up 0.32% from May’s estimate of 101.32 million mt, and above analysts’ forecast of 100.4 million mt. For the 2023/24 season, the USDA projects global soybean stocks at 123.34 million mt, up compared to the 122.5 million mt estimated in May. Analysts expected 2023/24 global soybean reserves of 121.7 million mt. The EU Commission expects the 2023 EU soybean harvest to reach around 2.8 million mt, almost 16% more than in 2022,, and likely the largest harvest in 6 years. Soybean production in the EU has more than tripled in the past ten years. The 2023 Italian soybean harvest is expected to reach 1 million mt, up 15.6% YoY, remaining the largest EU producer. Other EU countries with expected YoY increases in soybean production in 2023 are France (438 thousand mt), Romania (394 thousand mt), Croatia (251 thousand mt), and Hungary (171 thousand mt). EU countries with expected YoY decreases in 2023 are Germany (-24.8%), and Austria (-14%). Experts attribute the overall increase in EU soybean supply to larger-than-expected yields, despite a decline in area of cultivation by around 98 thousand ha to 994 thousand ha.
ANEC estimates Brazil’s soybean exports in June-2023 to reach 13.1 million mt, an increase of more than 30% YoY. Also, ANEC projects Brazilian soybean meal shipments in June-2023 at 2.27 million mt, virtually unchanged from May-2023 and up by around 100 thousand mt YoY. Similarly, Cargonave expects Brazilian soybean exports in June-2023 to reach 13.1 million mt, an increase by 3.16 million mt YoY, but down 9.6% compared to the 14.49 million mt in May-2022. IMEA forecast 2023/24 soybean production in the state of Mato Grosso in Brazil at 43.78 million mt, a drop of 3.39% compared to the 2022/23 harvest. The estimated area under cultivation in the state was maintained at 12.22 million ha, an increase of 0.82% YoY. With regard to the soybean yield, the projection remains at 59.70 bags/ha, a decline of 4.17% in relation to the productivity of the 2022/23 harvest, the highest on record at 62.30 bags/ha. According to IMEA, the projections are still limited, since some factors that may affect the harvest are still open, such as weather conditions, occurrence of pests and diseases and uncertainties regarding investments for 2023/24 due to the high cost of production and at the lowest soybean prices. IMEA also expects 2023/24 soybean exports from the state of Mato Grosso to reach 27.32 million mt, up 0.76% compared to 2022/23. With regard to interstate consumption, with the expectation of El Niño for 2024 that tends to negatively influence crops in southern Brazil, the projection remains at 4.24 million mt, a decrease of 11.85% YoY. 2023/24 soybean consumption in the state of Mato Grosso was maintained at 12.43 million mt, down 3.79% compared to 2022/23 due to the prospect of lower production in the state and increased exports.
The USDA estimates US soybean closing stocks in the 2022/23 season at 6.26 million mt, up 7% compared to May’s projection of 5.85 million mt. Experts expected a smaller rise from 5.85 million mt to 6.07 million mt. The USDA also projects 2023/24 soybean production to reach 122.75 million mt, unchanged from May’s estimation, and above analysts’ expectation of 112.62 million mt. Furthermore, the USDA forecasts US domestic soybean closing stocks in the 2023/24 season to amount to 9.53 million mt, up 4.5% from May’s expectation of 9.12 million mt. The USDA indicates that in the week ending June 1st, US soybean export inspections were pegged at 214.25 thousand mt, a decrease of 28.82 thousand mt WoW, but an increase of 6.29 thousand mt YoY, with shipments mainly destined for Germany and Mexico. So far in MY 2022/23, US soybean inspections are 48.67 million mt, down compared to 49.92 million mt in 2021/22. Also, the USDA reports that as of June 5th, 61% of US soybeans were in good to excellent condition, with 31% rated fair. 91% of US soybeans were planted, up compared to the usual pace of 76%, and 74% had emerged, up compared to 56% on average. Lastly, the USDA estimates Argentine soybean production in the 2022/23 season to reach 25 million mt, down 43% YoY and a decrease of 7% compared to May’s estimate. The drop in Argentine soybean production is attributed to a combination of adverse weather conditions and environmental factors. The 2022/23 Argentine soybean yield is estimated at 1.67mt/ha, down 7% MoM and 40% YoY. The harvested area was also reduced, estimated at 15 million ha, remaining unchanged MoM, but down 6% YoY. Argentina, one of the world's largest soybean producers, has been struggling with dry and hot conditions during the growing season, caused by the third consecutive year of the La Niña weather phenomenon.
