1. Weekly News

Argentina’s 2025 Olive Oil Harvest Shrinks Due to Weather and Market Pressures

Argentina’s olive oil harvest for 2025 is projected to drop to around 27.5 thousand metric tons (mt), down from 35 thousand mt in 2024 and a record 44 thousand mt in 2023. This drop is largely due to unfavorable weather conditions such as cold snaps, hail, and extreme temperatures during flowering. These challenges have especially impacted key producing provinces like San Juan and La Rioja, resulting in lower oil content and prompting a shift toward table olive production, which offers better returns given rising local costs. Meanwhile, provinces such as Mendoza and Córdoba experienced more favorable weather, achieving improved yields and quality. However, the nationwide decline highlights the continued impact of climate volatility and falling global olive oil prices, which are shaping production strategies across Argentina’s olive-growing regions.

Spain

Spain’s Olive Oil Prices Fall Sharply as Supply Recovers and Market Concerns Mount

Olive oil prices in Spain have dropped significantly to pre-2023 levels as production recovers in the 2024/25 season, supported by favorable winter rainfall and a mild spring. Extra virgin olive oil prices declined to USD 402 per 100 kilograms (EUR 349/100 kg) in W21, compared to USD 918.04/100 kg (EUR 797/100 kg) in 2024 and USD 698.04/100 kg (EUR 606/100 kg) in 2023, with similar declines seen across virgin and lampante oil categories. While increased supply is helping balance recovering demand, producer groups have raised concerns about potential market manipulation and speculative pricing. They caution that upcoming harvests remain vulnerable to high temperatures, pest pressure, and the natural alternation cycle of olive trees, urging stakeholders to manage expectations despite the current easing in prices.

Spain Develops High-Polyphenol Olive Oil to Promote Health and Rural Innovation

In Spain’s Sierra de Cádiz, the Olea Sylvestris association is leading a new initiative to produce high-polyphenol extra virgin olive oil (EVOO) under the brand Virens. This oil is positioned as a premium functional product with scientifically supported health benefits. The project is supported by a USD 139.3 thousand (EUR 121 thousand) grant from the DipuInnova+ program, which aims to foster local innovation. The goal is to develop antioxidant-rich oils that meet European health claim standards, particularly for cardiovascular and neurological health. Grown in mountainous terrain known for high-quality olive oil, the olives require precise harvesting and careful processing. New equipment is being used to minimize oxidation and preserve the oil’s nutritional value. Despite the high production costs, the oil targets a niche, health-conscious market. Beyond production, the initiative also supports broader objectives: preserving traditional agriculture, generating rural employment, and positioning Cádiz as a hub for innovation and agrotourism.

2. Weekly Pricing

Weekly Olive Oil Pricing Important Exporters (USD/kg)

Yearly Change in Olive Oil Pricing Important  Exporters (W24 2024 to W24 2025) 

Spain

In W24, Spain's olive oil prices dropped by 0.24% week-on-week (WoW) to USD 4.11/kg and declined by 52.54% year-on-year (YoY) due to a strong recovery in national production for the 2024/25 season, driven by favorable winter rainfall and a mild spring that boosted olive yields. Prices have returned to pre-2023 levels as increased availability, especially in extra virgin, virgin, and lampante oil categories, balances out demand. However, market players remain cautious, with producer groups warning of potential speculative pricing and manipulation. Concerns also persist over the vulnerability of future harvests to extreme heat, pest infestations, and the natural alternation cycle of olive trees, which could affect long-term supply stability despite the current easing in prices.

Italy

Olive oil prices in Italy dropped slightly by 0.18% WoW to USD 10.80/kg in W24, with a 1.79% month-on-month (MoM) increase and a 4.75% YoY rise due to a mix of recovering production tempered by enduring supply constraints. Though favorable spring weather has supported modest yield increases, output remains well below peak levels because of continued drought, Xylella-associated grove losses, erratic rainfall, and persistent pest pressures, which have kept stocks tight and prevented a full-scale price reversal. Meanwhile, strong domestic and export demand, and even opportunistic crime targeting green gold shipments, have sustained upward pressure on prices, helping drive the monthly and annual price gains even as weekly fluctuations moderate.

Tunisia

In Tunisia, olive oil prices in W24 fell by 2.70% WoW to USD 4.32/kg, with a 0.92% MoM drop and a steep 48.94% YoY drop. This was mainly due to global prices falling by nearly 49%, which reduced export income and pushed local prices down. Tunisia’s olive oil production increased by about 55% this season, adding to the oversupply. To control the situation, the government and the National Oil Office (ONH) bought and stored the extra oil. However, even though exports to the EU increased, overall export earnings dropped by around 29% because of low global prices and narrow profit margins.

3. Actionable Recommendations

Strengthen Forward Contracts and Storage Strategies to Reduce Price Volatility

Olive oil producers should secure forward contracts with buyers and invest in cooperative storage solutions to stabilize income during periods of price decline. By locking in future sales when prices are favorable, producers in Spain, Italy, Tunisia, and Greece can mitigate the impact of seasonal oversupply or speculative market drops. Additionally, upgrading on-farm or shared storage facilities enables better timing of sales, allowing producers to release stock gradually instead of rushing to market during peak harvest, which helps prevent further price pressure.

Adjust Cultivation Mix and Invest in Climate-Resilient Varieties

Olive oil producers should rebalance orchard planning by allocating more acreage to dual-purpose or table olive varieties in areas facing frequent climate stress. In regions like San Juan and La Rioja, where weather extremes have reduced oil yield and quality, shifting toward varieties with better tolerance to temperature swings and hail can help maintain profitability. Producers in more stable zones like Córdoba and Mendoza should prioritize early-harvest oil varieties and consider investing in weather monitoring tools and crop insurance to manage future risks.

Sources: Tridge, Freshplaza, Olive Oil Times, 8Directo, The Times, UK Agroconsult