1. Weekly News

Brazil

Brazil’s Livestock Market Faces Supply Challenges Amid Rising Export Demand

Brazil's livestock market is currently experiencing a complicated situation marked by limited cattle supply and weak domestic demand. This is amid widespread poverty driving consumers toward cheaper protein options like chicken and pork. Despite this, steer prices in southern Brazil remain high, and are expected to rise further due to tight supply. On the export front, live cattle shipments, especially calves and steers to Turkey, are growing steadily, supported by competitive prices. Although Brazil recently halted foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) vaccinations, the market impact has been minimal due to heavy reliance on Chinese demand. Meanwhile, beef production is becoming increasingly dependent on efficient management systems like short-cycle confinement, which are being adopted year-round. Brazil's beef exports remained strong in May-25, totaling over 218 thousand metric tons (mt) at rising average prices, though daily export volumes slightly declined. For the year so far, both export volume and value have grown over 10% compared to 2024.

China

US Beef Remains Sidelined as China Approves 106 New Meat Plants

China has approved 106 new United States (US) meat processing plants, 23 for pork and 83 for poultry, to resume exports of eligible products produced from June 12 onward. This follows recent trade talks aimed at reviving a trade truce between the two countries. This decision marks a step forward in US–China agricultural relations, especially after China imposed tariffs on USD 21 billion worth of American agricultural goods earlier this year. While pork and poultry facilities have regained export approval, US beef plants remain excluded, with their registrations still marked as expired. Despite progress in some sectors, this indicates that US beef continues to face access barriers in the Chinese market.

New Zealand

China’s Beef Import Investigation Puts New Zealand Market Access Under Scrutiny

China is currently investigating beef imports from major global suppliers, prompting a delegation of Chinese officials to visit New Zealand to assess its beef production and processing practices. The outcome could affect New Zealand's access to the Chinese market, which is crucial for the industry, with nearly USD 1 billion in annual exports. Despite the uncertainty, the Meat Industry Association remains confident that New Zealand beef does not threaten China's domestic industry and expects no changes to market access. In collaboration with the government and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade, the association has actively engaged in the investigation process and formally registered its position, though the timeline for a conclusion remains unclear.

Paraguay

Paraguay Expands Beef Market Reach with Strong Growth in Value and Volume

According to the Central Bank of Paraguay, beef exports reached 148.4 thousand mt, valued at USD 836.7 million in the first five months. This represents a significant 17.9% rise in volume and a remarkable 36.4% in value compared to the same period in 2024. This surge was driven primarily by increased shipments to key markets such as the US, Taiwan, Israel, and Canada, though declines were recorded in exports to Russia and Brazil. Chile remained the top destination, accounting for nearly a third of total exports. The average price of Paraguayan beef rose by 15.7% year-on-year (YoY), with the highest per-ton prices paid by Brazil, Israel, and Chile. As of May-25, Paraguayan beef reached 49 international markets, reflecting both rising global demand and improved pricing conditions.

South Korea

South Korea Expands Hanwoo Beef Exports with Middle East and Southeast Asia Push

South Korea is accelerating its beef export strategy, with a strong focus on promoting premium Hanwoo beef in international markets. In Mar-25, key agricultural and livestock organizations signed an agreement to export Hanwoo to the United Arab Emirates (UAE), followed by the establishment of the UAE Nonghyup Hanwoo Export Development Group in mid-Jun-25 to officially launch export activities. This initiative aligns with the growing global appeal of Korean cuisine, driven by the Korean Wave, which has elevated the perception of Korean food as both healthy and high-quality. Beyond the Middle East, efforts to integrate Korean beef into global food culture are also gaining momentum in Southeast Asia. Rich Farm, a South Korean agri-food company, is expanding its Chick by Chick franchise in Indonesia, adapting its popular K-burger, originally made with grilled chicken and stir-fried kimchi, to include Korean beef and other local ingredients. This fusion approach is helping to boost Hanwoo’s presence abroad while reinforcing the broader export potential of K-food.

2. Weekly Pricing

Weekly Beef Pricing Important Exporters (USD/kg)

Yearly Change in Beef Pricing Important Exporters (W25 2024 to W25 2025) 

Brazil

In W25, Brazil’s wholesale price for boneless rear beef rose by 1.07% week-on-week (WoW) to USD 4.73 per kilogram (kg), reflecting a 0.85% month-on-month (MoM) rise and a 2.83% YoY increase. This weekly gain is mainly attributed to exchange rate effects, as the domestic price held steady at BRL 26.0/kg for the third consecutive week. According to the Center for Advanced Studies in Applied Economics (Cepea), the overall livestock market has remained firm since early Jun-25, with modest but frequent price adjustments driven by limited supply. Meatpackers are adjusting prices to meet slaughter needs, while farmers, expecting further price increases post-holiday, are negotiating cautiously. Safras and Mercado also reported firm cattle prices, though the pace of increases has slowed compared to early Jun-25. Analysts noted that meatpackers are acting cautiously, awaiting a larger influx of confined cattle under forward contracts. Export performance remains strong, but domestic demand continues to show signs of weakness.

Australia

In W25, Australia’s National Young Cattle Indicator (NYCI) averaged USD 2.47/kg, down 0.80% WoW, but up 0.41% MoM and 15.96% YoY. Despite the weekly dip, Meat and Livestock Australia (MLA) noted a generally positive cattle market, with most indicators trending upward. Yardings remained relatively stable, easing slightly by 560 heads to 68.31 thousand. The feeder steer indicator outperformed the heavy steer indicator, with steady price gains recorded for feeder steers and heifers at Moss Vale, and for heifers at Wagga. Processor cow prices also increased at Wagga and Roma.

United States

In W25, US lean beef (92% to 94%) averaged USD 9.00/kg, up 2.04% WoW, 3.33% MoM, and 9.22% YoY. This marks a record high price in history. The increase is driven by strong seasonal demand from summer grilling and outdoor events, alongside tightening supply. As of January 1, 2025, the US cattle herd fell to 86.7 million heads, with beef cows hitting a 74-year low at 28 million. Supply concerns are expected to intensify following the suspension of live cattle imports from Mexico due to a screwworm outbreak, potentially pushing prices even higher during peak summer demand.

Argentina

In W25, Argentina’s average steer beef price increased by 5.06% WoW to USD 2.49/kg, likely driven by a temporary spike in demand due to two national holidays over the week. However, prices were still down 2.35% MoM, though they remained 15.28% higher YoY, suggesting a possible rebound in demand after the economic downturn of 2024. Despite this uptick, Argentina’s beef sector continues to face volatility. In May-25, cattle slaughter dropped 5% YoY to 1.12 million heads, indicating deeper structural issues in the supply chain. Although slaughter weights reached a record 232.3 kg, feedlot profitability plunged by 63% in just one month due to rising input costs, casting doubt on the sector’s long-term sustainability. For the first time in decades, Argentina also began importing beef, mainly from Brazil, highlighting the severity of the ongoing crisis. Nonetheless, the country is not experiencing a protein shortage, as per capita animal protein consumption, including beef, pork, and poultry, remains relatively high at between 115 kg to 120 kg. However, consumers are increasingly shifting toward more affordable meats like chicken and pork.

3. Actionable Recommendations

Strengthen Efficiency Amid Domestic Weakness and Export Growth

Brazil should continue investing in efficient production systems like year-round short-cycle confinement to mitigate limited cattle supply and improve productivity per hectare. Government and industry players should support rural credit access and technology adoption for smaller producers to expand confined operations. With growing live cattle demand from Turkey and competitive prices, Brazil should also streamline logistics and certification for live animal exports. At the same time, the country should monitor post-FMD-vaccination dynamics and proactively engage trade partners, especially China, to maintain confidence in Brazilian beef safety. Diversifying beyond China by deepening ties with the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) and Southeast Asia regions can further insulate the sector from overreliance on one market.

Safeguard China Access While Expanding Market Reach

New Zealand should continue proactive collaboration with Chinese authorities and showcase its rigorous production standards to maintain access amid the ongoing investigation. Transparent reporting, traceability systems, and third-party audits will reinforce confidence. Simultaneously, the country must accelerate efforts to diversify beef export destinations, such as Vietnam, the UAE, and premium markets in North America and Europe, to reduce overreliance on China.

Leverage Export Growth Through Premiumization and Market Expansion

Paraguay should capitalize on the strong momentum in export volume and value by positioning its beef as a premium product through quality certifications, sustainable practices, and regional branding such as grass-fed Paraguayan beef. The government and exporters should work to deepen relationships with high-paying markets like Brazil, Israel, and Taiwan, while exploring new market entries in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and the Middle East. Trade promotion efforts, such as joint public-private campaigns and participation in international food expos, can help Paraguay reach its next tier of global consumers.

Elevate Hanwoo’s Global Identity Through Culinary Integration

South Korea should reinforce Hanwoo’s premium image by tailoring products to meet halal certification requirements and promoting them through Korean restaurants and fusion food concepts abroad. Partnerships with local food service providers in the UAE, Indonesia, and Malaysia will be critical to building consumer familiarity. Efforts should focus on educating buyers on Hanwoo’s marbling, origin, and health profile. Exporters can also align with the broader K-food trend by embedding Hanwoo into branded products like K-burgers or ready-to-cook kits, making Korean beef more accessible while enhancing its cultural appeal.

Sources: Tridge, Agromeat, Agrinet, Canal Rural, Foodmate