In W28 in the barley landscape, in its July forecast, Strategie Grains revised the 2023 European Union (EU) barley harvest downwards by 0.8 million metric tons (mmt) to 47.1 mmt, a decrease of 8% year-on-year (YoY). The downward adjustment is attributed to adverse weather conditions impacting cereal crops across the bloc. Farmers reveal catastrophically low barley yields in Spain, while southeast Europe experienced disappointing yields due to excessive moisture during spring. Dryness negatively impacted spring barley in northern Europe.
The Australian government expressed disappointment over China's request for an additional month to complete the review required to remove import duties on Australian barley. Australia warned that it would reopen the World Trade Organization (WTO) case if further delays occur. On April 11, Australia agreed to temporarily suspend the WTO case on China's anti-dumping and countervailing duties on barley after China assured an expedited review. The agreement stipulated that China would complete the verification within three or four months if necessary. However, China requested an extension of one month, which Australia agreed to. The imposed combined tariff on Australian barley by China in 2022 was 80.5% for a five-year period, leading Australia to appeal formally to the WTO, which formed a commission to resolve the dispute.
APK-Inform indicates an upward price trend in the fodder barley sector in most regions of Ukraine in W28. The price increases were driven by active demand from feed, livestock, and export-oriented companies. The limited availability of new barley crop grains is attributed to farmers holding back sales and the slow progress of the harvesting campaign due to unfavorable weather conditions in some regions. As of July 14, feed barley demand prices mainly ranged between USD 102.64-135.05/metric ton (mt) Carriage Paid To (CPT), higher than in W27 by USD 5.40-10.80/mt, and in some isolated cases, even up by USD 16.21/mt.
Lastly, barley prices in Russian ports were rising and moving closer to fair settlement parity in W28. Despite Free On Board (FOB) prices for barley reaching record lows (USD 170-180/mt) since July 2020, the exchange rate growth has helped maintain a comfortable level for Russian Ruble prices, benefiting agricultural producers. With the global market experiencing seasonally active demand for barley between July and September, there are strong indications that the Russian exporters’ increasing purchase price trend will persist. The slow harvesting pace in the South region is also providing additional support, as it restricts the new crop volume influx into the market.
