W3 2025: Peanut Weekly Update

Published 2025년 1월 24일
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In W3 in the peanut landscape, some of the most relevant trends included:

  • The peanut crops in India's Kendrapada district are heavily impacted by the Kalimundi insect infestation, causing severe yield losses for farmers.
  • Farmers in NBR and CRR regions face significant difficulties in the 2024/25 peanut season, with high fertilizer costs, and delayed banking payments.
  • Paraguay's peanut exports are expanding, with notable growth in markets like Africa, particularly Algeria and Libya.
  • US peanut prices dropped 8.33% WoW and YoY to USD 0.55/kg, driven by an 11% production increase. Export risks from potential US tariffs on Mexico and Canada, along with rising competition from Argentina and Brazil, may pressure prices further.
  • Brazil's peanut prices rose 8.05% WoW but fell 14.02% YoY. Favorable weather in Mato Grosso do Sul and São Paulo supports production stability, while insufficient rainfall in Paraná may impact regional supply and prices.

1. Weekly News

India

Severe Pest Infestation Devastates Peanut Crops in Kendrapada District

Peanut crops across six blocks in India's Kendrapada district have been devastated by Kalimundi insect swarms, leaving farmers facing severe financial losses. The infestation has transformed fields into barren patches, with some farmers expecting only one-eighth of their usual yield. While the agriculture department is providing pesticides at subsidized rates and conducting awareness campaigns, many farmers feel the response has been inadequate. The pest outbreak threatens the peanut industry, with significant economic impacts anticipated for farmers and associated supply chains.

The Gambia

Farmers in The Gambia Face Challenges in 2024/25 Peanut Season Due to Poor Harvest and High Cost

Farmers in The Gambia's North Bank Region (NBR) and Central River Region (CRR) have expressed concerns over the 2024/25 peanut farming season, describing it as a failure. The poor harvest from 2023 has led to difficulties obtaining seeds and high fertilizer costs, exacerbating the challenges for farmers. Many have expressed frustration with the banking system for delayed payments. With limited resources, farmers are struggling to meet the demands of the upcoming planting season. Calls for government intervention to provide seeds, fertilizers, and financial support grow as peanut farmers face increasing economic hardship.

Paraguay

Paraguay Expands Global Trade In 2024 With Peanuts Gaining Ground in African Markets

In 2024, Paraguay exported 55 new products to over 40 countries, showcasing the growing quality and competitiveness of its industries. Key destinations included Europe, the Americas, Asia, and Africa. Paraguayan peanuts notably gained traction in the African market, with exports to Algeria and Libya.

2. Weekly Pricing

Weekly Peanut Pricing Important Exporters (USD/kg)

* All pricing is wholesale * Varieties: Argentina (unshelled), India (with shell), the US, and Brazil (overall peanut average)

Yearly Change in Peanut Pricing Important Exporters (W3 2024 to W3 2025)

* All pricing is wholesale * Varieties: Argentina (unshelled), India (with shell), the US, and Brazil (overall peanut average) * Blank spaces on the graph signify data unavailability stemming from factors like supply unavailability, missing data, or seasonality

United States

In W3, the United States (US) peanut prices fell to USD 0.55 per kilogram (kg), marking an 8.33% both week-on-week (WoW) and year-on-year (YoY) decline from USD 0.60/kg. This price drop aligns with an 11% increase in production, driven by strong yields despite earlier concerns over Hurricane Helene and regional droughts. The nearly 75% completion of the 2024 harvest confirms robust supply levels, though yields are slightly below 2025 expectations.

Export markets, especially to Mexico, Canada, and the EU, remain crucial for US peanut demand. However, the threat of US-imposed tariffs on Mexico and Canada could trigger retaliatory measures, weakening competitiveness in these key markets. This, coupled with rising competition from lower-cost producers like Argentina and Brazil, may put downward pressure on US peanut prices in the near term.

In addition, the decline in farmer stock marketings to 31.0 million pounds (lbs ) in W3, a 14% reduction from the previous week, suggests softer demand or delayed procurement, which could influence prices in the short term. While US peanut prices are expected to remain competitive in 2025, uncertainties in trade policies and increased global supply could temper price recovery.

Brazil

Brazil's peanut prices increased to USD 2.82/kg in W3, reflecting an 8.05% WoW rise, but a 14.02% YoY decline from USD 3.28/kg. This price fluctuation is influenced by the varying conditions across key producing states. According to Brazil's National Supply Company (Conab), Mato Grosso do Sul experienced favorable rainfall and thermal conditions promoting healthy crop development and flowering, with minimal pest outbreaks, projecting a promising harvest. This could contribute to increased production, potentially stabilizing or further boosting prices. In Minas Gerais, planting has been completed, and favorable climate conditions have led to expectations of good yields, which may support a steady supply and help balance price fluctuations. However, Paraná's region faced insufficient rainfall in Nov-24, affecting soil water levels, though Dec-24 rains provided some recovery. Despite these challenges, crop conditions remain good, and moderate production is expected, which could impact future supply and pricing stability.

São Paulo, the largest peanut producer in Brazil, has seen a recovery in production due to favorable weather conditions. The integration of peanuts with sugarcane cultivation has also contributed to increased output. With active exporters encouraging planting, São Paulo’s production is expected to help offset declines in other regions, supporting market stability. Favorable conditions in key producing regions may help stabilize production and prevent significant price increases, though regional weather discrepancies could still influence prices.

3. Actionable Recommendations

Enhance Pest Management Strategies

Peanut producers in regions like India should invest in effective pest control technologies and collaborate with experts to implement integrated pest management (IPM) systems. Examples include using biological controls (e.g., Trichogramma wasps) in the US, crop rotation in Argentina, and pheromone traps in Brazil. These strategies can reduce pest impact, lower costs, and improve yield consistency.

Capitalize on Expanding Export Markets

Given the increasing competitiveness of Paraguayan peanuts in global markets, stakeholders should focus on strengthening export strategies, particularly in Africa. This includes improving supply chain logistics and marketing efforts to expand peanut exports to emerging markets like Algeria and Libya.

Sources: Tridge, Agromeat, Times of India, Voice Gambia, Conab, USDA,

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