1. Weekly News 

Brazil

Roasters Forced to Raise Prices Amid Bean Shortages and Policy Shocks

As of September 1, major Brazilian roasters, 3 Corações and Melitta, have raised consumer coffee prices sharply: 10% for roasted and ground, 7% for instant (3 Corações), and 15% for Melitta. The hikes are directly linked to more than 20% year-to-date (YTD) increases in raw Arabica bean prices, following last year’s 70% surge, due largely to poor crop yields and adverse weather conditions. The United States (US) imposition of 50% tariffs on Brazilian imports intensified cost pressures, prompting sudden raw-material exhaustion and elevated futures buying. Since raw beans account for roughly 40% of the wholesale bag cost, this has sparked cascading impacts across the value chain, and many consumers are already seeking budget alternatives.

Relief Programs Bypass Coffee, Leaving Exporters in Limbo

Introducing a BRL 30 billion support package to aid sectors hit by tariffs, Brazil’s government is concentrating relief on domestic staples like açaí and honey. Despite being equally affected, coffee was notably excluded. Officials are counting on alternative trade channels to absorb the impact. However, without official support or export stabilization measures, coffee exporters risk profitability erosion. Observers argue that missing this buffer may delay recovery in export volumes and limit resilience against future shocks.

Colombia

Jul-25 Output Rebounds to a Decade High

Colombia reached a 10-year Jul-25 output peak, with 1.37 million 60-kilogram (kg) bags produced, a 19% increase year-on-year (YoY), supplied largely from delayed flowering due to early-year rains. Total annual production climbed to 14.6 million 60-kg bags, an 18% YoY rise, while exports rose 12% in Jul-25 alone. This surge bolstered revenue and tightened domestic supplies, although transport and fertilizer costs remain key concerns.

Deeper Dive Reveals Risk Ahead for 2025/26 Crop

Despite the current harvest strength in Colombia, the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) warns of a potential 5.3% drop in 2025/26 output, down to 12.5 million 60-kg bags. Forecasted heavy rainfall during the flowering cycle and limited farmer reinvestment amid elevated prices are key risk factors. Colombia’s supply outlook also hinges on the successful adoption of weather-resistant varieties and the restoration of processing infrastructure. A continuation of strong production is essential to support the country’s standing and revenue stability.

Vietnam

Export Value Soars as Production Expands

Vietnam anticipates 31 million 60-kg bags of coffee production in 2025/26, up from 29 million in 2024/25, led by higher Robusta yields. Exports are projected at 27 million bags, including 3.3 million processed (soluble/roasted), a reflection of domestic infrastructure growth. Export prices have surged, with early-month averages at approximately USD 5,630 per short ton, and domestic prices already exceeding USD 4.82/kg for Robusta. Government and industry data show strong expansion in processing capacity and downstream consumption, especially in urban centers.

Value Exports Propel Vietnam to New Heights

Following a January landmark where coffee exports surpassed USD 760 million in just that month, Vietnam is now on course to exceed USD 7.5 billion in full-year export revenue, significantly above the initial USD 5.5 billion target. The consistent climb in export value highlights the success of deeper processing strategies and demand from premium buyers in Asia and beyond. Vietnam’s agility in value positioning continues to enhance its global coffee footprint.

2. Weekly Pricing

Weekly Coffee Pricing Important Exporters (USD/kg) 

Yearly Change in Coffee Pricing Important Exporters (W35 2024 to W35 2025)

Brazil

In W35, Brazilian coffee prices dropped by 1.69% week-on-week (WoW) to USD 12.19/kg. The consolidation follows a strong Aug-25 gain, with local differentials steady as exporters balanced nearby commitments and mills/roasters managed cost pass-throughs.

In W35, prices are expected to soften unless renewed weather or foreign exchange (FX) volatility lifts flat prices. Traders should pay attention to the Center for Advanced Studies on Applied Economics (CEPEA) Arabica gauge, and any domestic demand ripple from recent retail price hikes, which could briefly curb spot buying. 

Colombia

In W35, Colombian coffee prices rose by 0.57% WoW to USD 12.43/kg. Despite this slight weekly growth, YoY prices show a steeper pattern, up by 61.64%. The National Federation of Coffee Growers of Colombia’s (FNC) internal reference price firmed this week, as stronger Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) “C” futures and a softer peso filtered into farmgate/wholesale benchmarks. Cooperative purchase indications tracked the reference closely, and passilla add-ons were unchanged, supporting a slightly tighter tone in interior trade. Overall, the domestic market reflected improved producer selling interest at the higher board-linked formula.

With the reference formula tethered to NY “C” and FX, the near-term call is steady-to-firm if the board holds recent gains. Additionally, any intra-week COP weakness would lift the prices. However, a pullback in futures could cap momentum. 

Vietnam

In W35, Vietnamese coffee prices trended upward, rising by 1.75% WoW and 21.41% MoM to USD 4.65/kg. Domestic Robusta prices in the Central Highlands pushed high, with Đắk Lắk/Gia Lai trades printing around USD 4.67-5.69/kg (VND 123,200–123,700/kg) in recent sessions, near record levels, as exporters sought nearby cover amid tight farmer selling. The move extends Aug-25’s bullish momentum, with internal differentials holding firm on limited spot availability.

In W36, prices are expected to remain firm to slightly higher if exporter demand persists and farm stocks remain sticky. Any softening in ICE Robusta could temper the ascent, but supply tightness argues for sustained strength. 

3. Actionable Recommendations 

Strengthen Hedging and Contracting Strategies

With Arabica wholesale prices showing signs of consolidation after Aug-25’s sharp rally, exporters and roasters should lock in margins through short-term hedging or forward contracts. The CEPEA Arabica indicator retreat toward USD 420/60-kg suggests temporary softness, but volatility tied to currency moves and weather risks remains. By fixing prices for part of their near-term procurement, traders and roasters can protect against renewed board-driven spikes or domestic supply tightness as internal demand stabilizes.

Leverage Currency and Board Movements 

Colombian parchment prices have firmed in line with NY “C” futures gains and a weaker peso, highlighting the sensitivity of the internal formula to both global futures and FX. Exporters and cooperatives should use this correlation to time sales strategically, accelerating commitments when board and currency trends are favorable. At the same time, local buyers, such as roasters and regional wholesalers, should consider pre-booking supplies before further peso depreciation drives up domestic procurement costs.

Secure Supply Early in Tight Robusta Market

Robusta wholesale prices in Đắk Lắk and Gia Lai are hovering near record highs above USD 4.66/kg (VND 123,000/kg), underlining tight farmer selling and thin spot availability. Exporters and international buyers should prioritize early contracting with cooperatives or large aggregators to guarantee supply before stocks thin further in Q4-2025. Additionally, roasters relying heavily on Vietnamese Robusta should explore diversification options, such as partial sourcing from Indonesia or Uganda, to mitigate the risks of prolonged elevated domestic prices in Vietnam.

Sources: Tridge, Reuters, Qahwa World, FNC, CEPEA, International Communicaffe, Vietnam Commodity Exports