1. Weekly News

Argentina

Argentina Wheat Harvest Ends with 18.6 MMT, Up 7% YoY Despite Mixed Regional Yields

In Argentina, wheat crops rated as normal or good declined by 10% week-on-week (WoW) in W4. The wheat harvest in the Southeast of Buenos Aires has been completed, marking the end of the national wheat harvest. Total production for the 2024/25 season reached 18.6 million metric tons (mmt), with an average national yield of 3.04 metric tons (mt) per hectare (ha).

While yields in the Southeast of Buenos Aires were below historical levels and initial estimates, higher-than-average yields in key regions, such as Central and Southwestern Buenos Aires, helped sustain overall production. This represents a 7% increase compared to the 2023/24 season and is 6% above the five-year average.

Australia

Australia’s Wheat Exports Dropped 49% YoY in Nov-24

Australia exported 579,589 mt of wheat in Nov-24, including 1,969 mt of durum, marking a 49% year-on-year (YoY) decline from 1.13 mmt in Nov-23. This drop was primarily due to large pulse export programs from Queensland and New South Wales ports and a drought-reduced wheat crop from South Australia. In containerized exports, the top markets were Thailand with 32,691 mt, Malaysia with 24,161 mt, and Vietnam with 23,886 mt. For bulk shipments, major destinations included the Philippines with 96,198 mt, Indonesia with 83,481 mt, and Japan with 58,349 mt, contributing to a bulk export total of 418,994 mt for the month.

Approximately 1.9 mmt of wheat were scheduled for shipment from Australian ports in Dec-24 and early 2025. According to the United States Department of Agriculture's (USDA) Jan-25 forecast, total wheat exports for the 2024/25 season are projected at 25 mmt. The USDA also revised global wheat export forecasts, reducing Russia’s estimate by 1 mmt to 46 mmt and Ukraine’s by 500 thousand mt to 16.5 mmt.

Russia

Russia Revised Jan-25 Wheat Export Forecast Upwards

Russia revised its Jan-25 wheat export forecast upward to 2.4 mmt from 2.1 mmt. However, this remains significantly lower than Jan-24’s exports and marks the lowest in four years. The decline is due to stagnant wheat prices, low sales volumes, and negative margins on export deliveries. Despite the import restrictions and ban lifted on deliveries to Kazakhstan, mass sales have not materialized due to Kazakhstan’s abundant harvest and domestic wheat prices being lower than those for Siberian wheat. Moreover, the USDA’s recent reports, which were bullish for corn and soybeans but bearish for wheat and other grains for the 2024/25 season, have also contributed to the market dynamics.

United States

US Winter Wheat Acreage for 2025 Increased by 2.2% YoY

According to the USDA, United States (US) farmers planted more acres of winter wheat for the 2025 harvest than in 2024. This is still below 2023 levels and slightly below the five-year average. The 2025 winter wheat seedings are estimated at 34.115 million acres, up 2.2% YoY from 33.39 million acres in 2024 but 7% below the 36.699 million acres planted in 2023. This marks a 27% decline from the peak of 46.781 million acres in 2008 and a significant 48% drop from the all-time high of 65.547 million acres in 1981. Planting progressed on pace with the five-year average, reaching 97% completion by November 24. By class, hard red winter wheat seedings increased 1% YoY to 24 million acres, soft red winter wheat acreage rose 6% YoY to 6.44 million acres, and white winter wheat plantings grew 3% YoY to 3.64 million acres.

United Kingdom

UK Wheat Imports Reached Record Levels Due to Lower Domestic Production and Strong GBP

In 2024, the United Kingdom's (UK) wheat imports reached their highest levels since electronic records began in 1995/96, primarily due to lower domestic production and quality issues. The strong pace of imports is also influenced by the historically higher value of the Great British pound (GBP) against the euro (EUR), as noted by the Agricultural and Horticultural Development Board (AHDB). The UK imported 295,100 mt of wheat in Nov-24, marking a 71% YoY increase and more than double the five-year average for November, 127,300 mt.

From Jul-24 to Nov-24, total imports stood at 1.45 mmt. In comparison, during the 2012/13 and 2013/14 periods, imports were 1.03 mmt and 1.18 mmt, respectively. A significant portion of these imports is expected to be of milling quality, with 529,500 mt coming from Germany and 235 thousand mt from Canada. Full-season wheat imports for 2024/25 are forecasted at 2.75 mmt, a 13% increase compared to the previous season.

2. Weekly Pricing

Weekly Wheat Pricing Important Exporters (USD/kg)

Yearly Change in Wheat Pricing Important Exporters (W4 2024 to W4 2025)

Russia

In W4, Russian wheat prices remained steady WoW at USD 0.24 per kilogram (kg). However, concerns over a potential decrease in wheat supply from Russia persist due to unfavorable weather conditions impacting early wheat growth, including droughts that have lowered production forecasts. The USDA now estimates Russian wheat production for the 2024/25 marketing year (MY) at 83 mmt, reflecting a downward revision. Moreover, the Russian government's export restrictions to stabilize domestic food prices and ensure sufficient local supply have further constrained the volume of wheat available for export, contributing to a tightening global wheat market.

United States

In W4, US wheat prices increased by 4.76% WoW and month-on-month (MoM), reaching USD 0.22/kg. This rise is primarily due to a projected decrease in the global wheat stocks-to-use (STU) ratio, anticipated to be 32% by June 1, 2025, compared to the 16-year average of 34%. Major wheat-exporting regions, including Australia, Canada, the European Union (EU), Russia, and Ukraine, are expected to have STU ratios significantly below average, indicating tight exportable wheat supplies. Moreover, the US winter wheat planted area is forecasted to increase by 2% YoY to 34.1 million acres for the 2025/26 MY suggesting potential future supply adjustments.

France

In W4, French wheat prices fell 8% MoM, reaching USD 0.23/kg. This decline occurred despite a downward revision in 2024/25 production forecasts. The French Ministry of Agriculture adjusted its soft wheat production estimate to 25.78 mmt, down by 540 thousand mt from earlier projections. The revision highlights significant challenges, including a 17% reduction in planted acreage and a 15% decrease in yields compared to the 2023/24 season.

Ukraine

In W4, Ukrainian wheat prices increased by 4.17% WoW and MoM and by 19.05% YoY, reaching USD 0.25/kg. While the wheat harvest forecast for 2024/25 remains steady at 22.9 mmt, the export forecast has been revised downward to 16 mmt. Operational data reveals that as of early Dec-24, 4.38 million ha of winter wheat had been sown, reflecting a nearly 2% shortfall from the planned area and a 9% decline YoY. This lag in winter sowing is due to ongoing drought conditions affecting key growing regions.

3. Actionable Recommendations

Diversify Export Destinations for Key Wheat Exporters

Major wheat-exporting countries like Russia, Australia, and Ukraine should prioritize diversifying their export markets to reduce overdependence on traditional buyers such as the EU and China. Exporters can build new demand streams by targeting emerging markets in Africa (e.g., Kenya, Nigeria) and Southeast Asia (e.g., Vietnam, the Philippines). For instance, Russia can explore opportunities in smaller, rapidly growing economies where wheat imports are rising due to population growth and changing dietary preferences. Moreover, bilateral trade agreements or government-backed marketing initiatives can help exporters overcome barriers to entry in these regions. Diversification reduces vulnerability to disruptions in established markets caused by geopolitical tensions, economic downturns, or competition. By tapping into these markets, wheat-exporting countries can stabilize their revenues and maintain export volumes despite global price volatility.

Invest in Drought-Resilient Varieties and Irrigation Systems

Countries facing frequent droughts, such as Russia, Ukraine, and parts of Australia, need to adopt climate-resilient agricultural practices to mitigate production risks. Governments and private stakeholders should collaborate to promote the development of drought-resistant wheat varieties through research, subsidies, and farmer education programs. For example, precision irrigation systems like drip irrigation or moisture sensors can optimize water use in water-scarce regions, ensuring consistent yields. Countries like Ukraine, where drought conditions have led to declines in wheat planting areas, could particularly benefit from these innovations. Incentivizing the use of technology and improved seed varieties would enhance resilience to climate change. Over time, this strategy would help stabilize domestic wheat supplies, ensure food security, and maintain export competitiveness.

Promote Regional Trade Agreements to Reduce Tariffs

Wheat-exporting nations should negotiate regional trade agreements (RTAs) with key importing regions, such as Southeast Asia, the Middle East, and North Africa, to enhance their competitiveness in international markets. These agreements can lower tariffs, streamline customs procedures, and improve logistical efficiency, making wheat exports more cost-effective and attractive to buyers. For example, Australian exporters can benefit from reduced trade barriers in Asian markets where local production struggles to meet rising demand. Similarly, Ukraine could strengthen ties with Middle Eastern countries by leveraging proximity and logistical advantages. Beyond economic gains, RTAs can also foster stronger trade relationships, creating a buffer against global market disruptions. Such agreements would enable exporters to maintain steady demand, increase profit margins, and establish long-term partnerships with buyers in strategic regions.

Sources: Tridge, AgroInvestor, Agromeat, UkrAgroConsult