In W43 in the rice landscape, Indonesia's rice prices continue to rise, although medium rice is beginning to decrease from its record level of USD 0.84 per kilogram (kg) on a national average. On October 23, premium rice prices increased by USD 0.00063 to USD 0.94/kg at Pasar Jaya Gondangdia, Central Jakarta. Meanwhile, medium rice prices dropped by USD 0.0013 to USD 0.83/kg. A week earlier, the price of medium rice was still at USD 0.94/kg. Furthermore, the retail price of premium rice increased from USD 0.86/kg in Aug-23 to USD 0.91/kg in Sept-23.
Indonesia's government aims to boost rice production to 35 million metric tons (mmt) in 2024, surpassing the 2023 target of 31 mmt, in order to eliminate the need for rice imports and meet domestic demands. The estimated harvest area in 2023 is 10.20 million hectares (ha), with projected production at 53.63 mmt of unhusked rice, equivalent to 30.90 mmt of rice. Rice consumption is expected to be 30.62 mmt, resulting in a surplus of 280 thousand metric tons (mt). The strategy to reach this target involves increasing rice productivity from 5.2 mt/ha to a range of 5.4 and 5.7 mt/ha.
As of October 15, Vietnam's rice exports reached nearly 6.73 mmt, worth USD 3.73 billion, representing a 17% YoY increase in volume and a 34.5% YoY increase in value. These figures mark a historic record for Vietnam, surpassing the previous milestone of USD 3.65 billion set in 2011, officially setting a new historical record after 34 years of participating in the world market. Regarding rice exports, businesses signed contracts at a threshold of USD 670 to USD 680/mt, which is also a record high.
Vietnamese rice exports are experiencing a unique trend as prices are rising in contrast to global competitors. On October 23, Vietnam's 5% and 25% broken rice were priced at USD 643/mt and USD 628/mt, respectively. This makes Vietnamese 5% broken rice USD 74/mt higher than Thai rice of the same type and USD 80/mt higher than Pakistani rice. Similarly, Vietnamese 25% broken rice exceeds Thai and Pakistani prices by USD 105/mt and USD 145/mt, respectively.
India lowered the minimum export price (MEP) for basmati rice from USD 1,200/mt to USD 950/mt on October 26, benefiting both farmers and exporters. Basmati rice is a premium long-grain rice known for its aroma, and India and Pakistan are the primary producers. India exports over 4 mmt of basmati rice to various countries, including Iran, Iraq, Yemen, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), and the United States (US). The reduction in MEP is seen as a decision that will benefit both farmers and exporters, who faced losses under the previous higher MEP of USD 1,200/mt, according to the President of the Indian Rice Exporters Federation.
Lastly, in Brazil, the rice market is characterized by strategic developments and prices approaching historic highs. There is a notable increase in purchasing activity, particularly in the North Coast region of Rio Grande do Sul, where some transactions have been recorded at over USD 22.79 for a 50-kg bag.