1. Weekly News

Australia

Dairy Sector in Australia to Grow by 1.1% in 2025

Australia's dairy production is projected to reach 8.8 million metric tons (mmt) in 2025, marking a 1.1% year-on-year (YoY) increase after a 2.7% YoY rise in 2024. Record milk prices and reduced land conversion pressures drove this growth, though regional drought in Victoria and South Australia poses challenges. Fresh milk consumption is expected to grow 0.4%, reversing declines, while industrial use will expand to 6.2 mmt. Cheese production will stabilize at 375 thousand metric tons (mt), with moderate declines anticipated in cheese exports, milk powders, and butter. Strategic market diversification sustains resilience despite climatic hurdles.

Belarus

Belarus Adjusts Indicative Export Prices for Dairy Products

Belarus has raised indicative export prices for skimmed milk powder (SMP) and whole milk powder (WMP) in response to global market trends. Aligning with rising Global Dairy Trade (GDT) prices, SMP prices increased to USD 2.35 per kilogram (kg) globally and USD 2.4/kg for Algeria while WMP prices rose to USD 3.7/kg. Additionally, minimum cheese export prices were adjusted for Russia, reflecting higher costs. These changes aim to enhance competitiveness and boost export volumes, particularly in markets like Algeria.

Brazil

Genetic Improvement Boosts Dairy Production in Mato Grosso

Initiated in Pontes e Lacerda in 2022, Mato Grosso's dairy herd genetic improvement project yields promising results. Crossbred Girolando heifers born through embryo transfer produce 200% more milk than the state average during their first lactation. Funded by the State Agriculture Secretariat (Seaf) and supported by the Mato Grosso Company for Research, Assistance, and Rural Extension (Empaer), the initiative enables small farmers to affordably access advanced genetics and technical assistance. Over 46 farmers have benefited, with 192 heifers born, demonstrating increased productivity and earlier maturity despite pasture-based feeding during dry periods.

Colombia

Subclinical Hypocalcemia in Colombian Grazing Dairy Cows

A study on grazing dairy cows in Colombia's Antioquia region revealed that subclinical hypocalcemia (SCH) affects 31% of cows, increasing risks of health issues and culling. Persistent SCH cows faced significantly higher risks of diseases and culling, while transient SCH cows demonstrated improved milk production. The findings highlight SCH as a critical challenge for grazing herds, exacerbated by factors like Kikuyu grass in Colombia. Effective calcium management and targeted interventions are vital to minimize health and productivity losses in diverse dairy systems.

India

India Expands its Dairy Industry

India, the world's largest milk producer, is projected to increase dairy production to 216.5 million tons in 2024, driven by population growth, higher incomes, favorable policies, and cooperative solid networks. New investments include Britannia Bel Foods' cheese plant and expanded processing by Sid's Farm and Dodla Dairy. However, small farmers need help repaying microloans due to overestimated income potential. The government is enhancing funding for infrastructure, breeding, and quality control.

Mongolia

Mongolia Boosts Dairy Supply Amid Rising Imports

Mongolia's livestock count reached 64.7 million, with 8% being cattle. Daily milk production meets local demand, but over 40% of dairy products, like cheese and powdered milk, are imported. From Jan-24 to Oct-24, imports of dairy products totaled USD 21.1 million, a 20% YoY increase, with powdered milk accounting for USD 11.4 million. The government plans to subsidize raw milk to USD 0.29 per liter (MNT 1,000/L) to enhance domestic supply as current market prices average USD 0.88/L (MNT 3,000/L).

United States

Avian Flu Virus Detected in California Raw Milk

Authorities from the department of public health in California reported detecting the Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza H5 (HPAI H5) virus in raw milk produced by Raw Farm LLC on November 21, 2024. The company voluntarily recalled the contaminated batch, and health officials advised consumers to avoid the product to prevent potential health risks. While no illnesses linked to this batch have been reported, the virus spreads among wild birds and livestock globally, raising concerns. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) also confirmed 55 human cases of H5N1 in the United States (US) this year, including one child in California.

2. Weekly Pricing

Weekly Powdered Milk Pricing Important Exporters (USD/kg)

Yearly Change in Powdered Milk Pricing Important Exporters (W47 2023 to W47 2024)

Germany

In Germany, the milk price dropped to USD 2.75/kg in W47. This marks a week-on-week (WoW) decrease of 15.12%, a month-on-month (MoM) decrease of 3.85%, and a YoY decline of 8.33%. The price drop can be attributed to several factors. The easing of supply constraints, as the market recovers from extreme heat and disease outbreaks earlier in the year, played a significant role. Despite supply improvements, the European dairy sector still faces challenges, which continue to impact production efficiency. These ongoing supply-side pressures may keep prices volatile over the upcoming weeks as the market balances recovery with these persistent challenges.

Belgium

In Belgium, the milk price remained relatively stable, with a slight decrease of 0.25% WoW and a moderate increase of 0.51% MoM. However, YoY prices dropped by 4.62% to USD 3.92/kg in W47. This relative price stability in Belgium contrasts with other European markets, reflecting the strength of Belgium's dairy sector. The country's milk production has been consistently supported by productivity improvements, which have helped maintain stable output levels. Strong global demand due to supply constraints might cause price increases in Belgium as the market might face pressure due to demand surpassing supply.

Netherlands

In the Netherlands, milk prices showed relative stability on a WoW basis only showing a 0.89% drop to USD 2.22/kg in W47. However, prices have seen a significant drop of 16.85% both MoM and YoY. The price decline reflects the easing of earlier surges caused by severe supply disruptions. Throughout 2024, milk prices were elevated due to bluetongue virus outbreaks among dairy cattle, significantly impacting milk production. In addition, global supply issues, including the spread of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI), contributed to keeping dairy prices high. The current price reduction suggests some recovery in supply, but ongoing challenges like labor shortages and strict environmental regulations in Europe may continue to constrain milk production.

France

In France, milk prices have increased steadily, reaching USD 3.63/kg in Week 47, reflecting a 2.25% WoW rise, a 1.40% MoM increase, and a significant 14.87% YoY growth compared to USD 3.16/kg in Week 47 of 2023. This price growth is primarily attributed to tight European Union (EU) milk supplies, driven by ongoing production challenges such as outbreaks of the bluetongue virus and other disruptions earlier in the year. Rising demand for French milk has further amplified these supply constraints, particularly in export markets. With supply remaining tight across the EU, prices are expected to stay elevated compared to last year, and further upward movement is likely in the near term if production issues persist or demand continues to grow.

Poland

In Poland, milk prices remained relatively stable WoW, increasing slightly by 0.39% to USD 2.57/kg in W47. However, MoM prices rose 6.64%, driven by tight supply conditions. Despite this, YoY prices declined by 8.87%, reflecting better supply conditions this year than last year. The earlier price increases were primarily driven by supply constraints caused by adverse weather and high temperatures affecting European and global markets. Improved supply and more stable market dynamics have helped ease these pressures, stabilizing the current. While demand for Polish milk had previously contributed to higher prices, the market is now transitioning toward equilibrium.

3. Actionable Recommendations

Diversify Export Markets to Enhance Resilience

Australia can mitigate moderate declines in dairy exports by expanding its market presence in countries with rising dairy demand, such as India and Mongolia, while leveraging its high-quality cheese production to target premium segments in France, where demand is increasing. Similarly, Belarus should continue strengthening ties with Algeria, utilizing its competitive pricing for SMP and WMP to penetrate additional African and Middle Eastern markets, where dairy imports are growing.

Invest in Genetic Improvement Programs to Enhance Productivity

Governments and private entities should prioritize genetic improvement programs to increase milk yields and improve herd efficiency. Techniques like selective breeding, embryo transfer, and genomic testing can be employed to develop high-yielding and resilient breeds, such as Girolando in Brazil or Holstein-Friesian hybrids globally. These initiatives can be scaled to regions with untapped potential, such as parts of Africa and Southeast Asia, fostering self-sufficiency and export growth.

Enhance Infrastructure for Domestic Production and Quality Control

Mongolia’s dependence on imports highlights an opportunity to improve local dairy production through subsidies and infrastructure development. Partnering with nations like India, which has robust cooperative networks, could support training and infrastructure investments, reducing import reliance while boosting local supply chains.

Sources: Tridge, AG Proud, Agro Meat, Food Mate, Milk News, Milk UA, O Presente Rural, VOH