1. Weekly News

Brazil

Brazil’s Coffee Prices Expected to Rise in the 2025 Harvest

The Brazilian Coffee Industry Association (ABIC) forecasts rising coffee prices in the coming months, driven by adverse weather conditions and growing global demand, particularly from China. Brazil, the world's top coffee exporter, has faced four consecutive years of climate-related disruptions, including frost, drought, and excessive rainfall, impacting yields and production costs. Despite a potential price stabilization with the 2025 harvest, consumers will continue to see higher costs. Brazil remains the second-largest global coffee consumer.

Brazilian Coffee Consumption Grows in 2024 Despite Rising Retail Prices

Brazil's domestic coffee consumption grew by 1.11% in 2024, reaching 40.4% of the national harvest. This is equivalent to 54.21 million 60-kilogram (kg) bags, reinforcing its position as the world's second-largest consumer. Driven by rising retail prices, industry revenue surged 60.85% to USD 6.36 billion (BRL 36.82 billion), with traditional and extra-strong coffees seeing the highest price rises. The Southeast led consumption (41.7%), while per capita intake remained strong at 6.26 kg annually. Certification demand expanded, especially for specialty coffee (+85%), reflecting a shift toward higher-quality products despite price hikes across all categories.

Brazil’s Green Coffee Exports Rise 9.5% in Jan-25

Brazil exported 245,300 metric tons (mt) of green coffee in Jan-25, up 9.5% year-on-year (YoY), despite producers withholding sales in anticipation of higher prices. The rise follows the Dec-24 decline and comes amid record-high prices due to a disappointing 2024 harvest and expectations of a smaller Arabica crop in 2025. Exporters also faced logistical bottlenecks, with 1.83 million bags delayed at ports.

Minas Gerais Coffee Harvest Set to Decrease in 2025

The 2025 coffee harvest in Minas Gerais is expected to reach 24.8 million 60-kg bags, down 11.6% from 28 million bags in the previous year. The area under cultivation will decrease by 2.4%, covering over 1 million hectares (ha). The challenges in recent years, including climate issues like heatwaves and irregular rainfall, have impacted production, along with a negative biennial cycle leading to lower yields. Despite the reduction, the demand remains firm, benefiting producers.

Minas Gerais Allocates USD 19 Million for Coffee Farmers

Minas Gerais coffee farmers now have USD 19 million (BRL 96 million) in additional financing available through the Funcafé Fund, provided by the Banco de Desenvolvimento de Minas Gerais (BDMG). This follows the depletion of the original 2024/25 allocation in just over three months. The total available funding for the current coffee harvest reaches USD 62 million, a 40% increase compared to the previous year. The funds will support cooperatives, producers, and agribusinesses, strengthening Minas Gerais' leadership in national coffee production. Since 2018/19, BDMG has disbursed over USD 440 million (BRL 2.2 billion) to the sector. For the 2024/25 harvest, BDMG has allocated USD 280 million (BRL 1.4 billion) .

Colombia

Colombia's Coffee Production and Exports Surge in Jan-25

Colombia's coffee production rose 41% in Jan-25, reaching 1.35 million 60-kg bags, compared to 959,000 bags in Jan-24, thanks to favorable weather conditions. Coffee exports also increased by 23% to 1.15 million bags. However, production fell 24.5% and exports declined 10.2% compared to Dec-24 high figures. Over the past 12 months, Colombia's total coffee harvest rose by 26%, reaching over 14.3 million bags, with exports growing by 17% to 12.5 million bags.

Russia

Declining Packaged Coffee Sales in Russia

Packaged coffee purchases in Russia dropped as consumers shifted to ready-to-drink (RTD) options, risking market stagnation. Despite a 10.3% sales increase, volume grew just 2%, with unit sales up 9%, reflecting a preference for smaller packs. While category penetration remains high at 96%, reduced shopping frequency and stockpiling pose challenges. Hotel, Restaurant, and Café/Catering (HoReCa) consumers buy retail coffee 53% more often than non-visitors. Monarch overtook Nescafe in value sales, MacCoffee leads in unit sales, but Nescafe remains top by weight. Maxim, Suare, Lavazza, and Magnit's private label saw strong growth due to assortment expansion.

Vietnam

Vietnam’s Coffee Exports Decline in Volume but Surge in Value

In Jan-25, Vietnam exported 154,635 metric tons (mt) of coffee, earning USD 799.5 million. Green coffee exports totaled 137,568 mt, a 38.2% YoY drop in volume, but saw an 8.8% value increase, generating USD 694.9 million. Processed coffee exports reached 17,067 mt, contributing USD 104.6 million. Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) enterprises accounted for 21.8% of green coffee exports. In 2024, Vietnam shipped 1.35 million metric tons (mmt), setting a record USD 5.62 billion in revenue. The 2025 production target is 1.98 mmt, with exports projected at 24.4 million 60-kg bags amid rising global consumption.

2. Weekly Pricing

Weekly Coffee Pricing Important Exporters (USD/kg)

Yearly Change in Coffee Pricing Important Exporters (W6 2024 to W6 2025)

Brazil

Brazilian coffee prices continued their upward trajectory, reaching USD 8.45/kg in W6, marking a 1.56% week-on-week (WoW), 14.50% month-on-month (MoM), and 50.36% YoY increase. This sustained price surge is driven by a prolonged drought that threatens future production, particularly in key regions like Minas Gerais. Strong early-season exports have further strained domestic supply, with farmers selling more than usual, raising concerns about remaining export volumes. The Brazilian Coffee Industry Association (ABIC) anticipates continued price increases in the coming months, citing adverse weather and rising global demand, particularly from China. Additionally, Brazil’s domestic coffee consumption grew by 1.11% in 2024, now accounting for 40.4% of the national harvest, adding further pressure to supply and prices.

Colombia

In W6, Colombian coffee prices reached USD 7.82/kg, showing a 3.99% WoW and 5.82% MoM increase. The price hike is primarily driven by increasing demand amid tight supply in Colombia and other major producing countries, as well as the country's growing coffee exports. Notably, Colombia’s coffee exports grew by 17% YoY to 12.5 million bags in Jan-25, indicating robust global demand. However, compared to W6 2024, prices are down by 3.93% YoY. This decline is partly due to a 26% increase in Colombia's total coffee harvest over the past year, reaching 14.3 million 60-kg bags, which alleviated some supply concerns, leading to slightly lower prices despite the strong growth in exports.

Vietnam

In W6, Vietnamese coffee prices rose to USD 5.13/kg, marking a 1.58% WoW and 12.01% MoM increase. The surge is driven by adverse weather conditions threatening Robusta output. This further tightens the global supply, which is projected to reach a 25-year low. Additionally, Vietnam’s 2024 coffee production declined by 5%, reducing available stocks and pushing prices higher. With strong global demand for coffee, particularly for Robusta, prices continue to face upward pressure.

3. Actionable Recommendations

Diversify Export Strategies Amid Rising Coffee Prices

Given the significant price increases in Brazil and Vietnam, exporters should target premium markets where higher price points are acceptable, such as specialty coffee segments in Europe, Japan, and the United States (US). Additionally, strategic hedging against future price volatility can help mitigate risks from supply fluctuations.

Strengthen Supply Chain Resilience Against Climate Risks

The persistent climate disruptions affecting Brazilian and Vietnamese coffee production necessitate investment in climate-resilient farming practices. This includes drought-resistant coffee varieties like IAC 125 RN and Vietnam’s TR4, improved irrigation such as subsurface drip irrigation and micro-sprinkler systems, and soil moisture retention techniques like agroforestry and biochar mulch. Governments and private investors should also expand financial support to ensure farmers maintain production stability.

Expand Robusta Coffee Production to Address Supply Gaps

With Vietnam’s Robusta coffee production expected to hit a 25-year low, there is an opportunity for other producers, including Indonesia and Uganda, to increase Robusta output and capture market share. Investors should explore supply chain expansions in these regions to balance the tightening global supply.

Sources: Tridge, Agro Info, Kvedomosti, Merco Press, Noticias Agricolas, Portal do Agronecogio, WTO Center