W8 Chicken Update: Heatwave Disrupts Peru's Egg Production, China's 2023 Egg Price Fluctuations

Published 2024년 3월 1일

In W8 in the chicken landscape, a heatwave in Peru has disrupted egg production, leading to a 15 to 20% decrease in output due to reduced hen appetites. It is compounded by a decline in the national flock size and a large unvaccinated chicken population, raising concerns about biosecurity risks. Consequently, egg prices in Metropolitan Lima rose from USD 1.82 to USD 2.37 per dozen on Feb-24. Meanwhile, China experienced fluctuating egg prices throughout 2023, with an initial decline followed by a recovery period. Despite a slight increase anticipated during the Spring Festival, egg prices in H1-24 are expected to remain relatively low, while poultry meat and egg production are forecasted to maintain a growth trajectory.

Heatwave Disrupts Peruvian Egg Production, Leading to Price Increase

The Association of Egg Producers of Peru (APROHPERU) has raised concerns regarding the impact of the ongoing heatwave on Peru's poultry industry, particularly egg production. The heatwave is negatively affecting egg production, with some farms experiencing a 15 to 20% decrease in output. This decline is attributed to the reduced appetites of laying hens due to the excessive heat. The number of chickens on Peruvian farms has significantly decreased in recent years, from 33 million in 2020 to 22 million currently. This decline, coupled with the heatwave's impact, further exacerbates production challenges.

APROHPERU highlights the presence of approximately 15 million unvaccinated chickens, posing a potential health risk to the poultry industry. They advocate for the widespread use of avian flu vaccines across all farms. The decline in production, combined with existing challenges, has led to a noticeable increase in egg prices. In Metropolitan Lima, month-on-month (MoM) prices rose from USD 1.82 to USD 2.37 per dozen in Feb-24, reflecting a similar trend observed at the farm level.

The heatwave in Peru is having a disruptive impact on the country's egg production, causing a decline in output and contributing to rising market prices. The issue is further compounded by a shrinking national flock size and the presence of a large unvaccinated population, raising concerns about potential biosecurity risks.

Fluctuating Egg Prices Mark 2023 in China

Egg prices in China exhibited significant volatility throughout 2023, characterized by an initial decline followed by a recovery period. The national average egg price in 2023 was USD 1.61 per kilogram (kg), representing a year-over-year (YoY) decrease of 2.5%. On Jan-23, prices started at USD 1.70/kg, demonstrating a decline of 5.5% MoM but an increase of 11.1% YoY. Prices experienced a rapid rebound, reaching a peak of USD 1.71 on Sep-23, signifying a cumulative rise of 16.1% from Jul-23 lows of USD 1.49/kg. Dec-23 prices settled at USD 1.57/kg, reflecting a slight decrease of 0.8% MoM and a YoY decrease of 12.6%.

Despite the significant price fluctuations observed throughout 2023, the yearly average price remained below the previous years. While a slight increase is anticipated around the upcoming Spring Festival, overall egg prices throughout H1-24 are forecasted to remain relatively low. Future trends might witness fluctuations, but poultry meat and egg production is expected to maintain a growth trajectory, albeit at a slower pace.