March 2025 Outlook Report: Grains

- Key Indicators: Global freight prices averaged USD 3,129.10 per 40-foot container in Feb-25, marking a 20.69% month-on-month (MoM) drop and a 7.70% year-on-year (YoY) decrease. This decline is attributed to the post-Lunar New Year (LNY) slowdown. Meanwhile, the World Bank's Fertilizer Index averaged 133.47 points in Feb-25, marking a 7.39% MoM increase and a 13.11% YoY rise, driven by higher prices for urea, diammonium phosphate (DAP), and potassium chloride. The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) Cereal Price Index averaged 112.60 points, reflecting a slight 0.72% MoM rise, supported by higher prices for wheat, maize, barley, and sorghum.

- Wheat: United States (US) wheat export prices are expected to remain stable in Mar-25, supported by global demand, but may face downward pressure in the coming months due to trade policy concerns, particularly US tariffs on Mexico. Meanwhile, Russian wheat prices are likely to stay bullish amid tightening supply and strong domestic demand. While trade policy shifts, including US-China tariff changes, may provide some price support, Australia’s record wheat production is expected to cap significant price increases.

- Maize: US corn prices are expected to stay elevated in Mar-25, driven by strong demand and competitive pricing, though trade tensions and potential retaliatory tariffs could impact future trends. Brazil’s maize export prices are likely to remain bullish due to Safrinha planting delays, tightening supply, and an uncertain US tariff landscape. Meanwhile, Argentine corn prices are anticipated to stay high, supported by the government’s tax reduction policy and shifting global trade dynamics.

- Rice: India’s rice export prices are expected to stay subdued in Mar-25 as export ban relaxations, including the approval to export 100% broken rice, lead to a supply surplus despite strong export growth. Increased competition from India is likely to keep Thai rice prices under pressure in the coming months. Similarly, intensified competition and rising global rice supply are expected to keep Vietnamese rice prices low in Mar-25.