May 2025 Outlook Report: Meat

- Key Indicators: Global freight prices averaged USD 2,045.93 per 40-foot container in Apr-25, marking a 6.87% month-on-month (MoM) drop and a 15.61% year-on-year (YoY) decrease, primarily driven by the United States (US)-China trade tensions. The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) Meat Price Index averaged 121.60 points, reflecting a 3.17% MoM increase and a 4.32% YoY rise. Global meat prices experienced an upward trend across all major categories.

- Beef: Global beef export prices are expected to stay elevated due to tight supplies and strong demand. In the US, temporary tariff relief in China and expanded United Kingdom (UK) market access may boost demand, while limited domestic supply supports high prices. Brazilian and Australian beef prices are also anticipated to remain strong, driven by global demand, especially from the US, China, and the European Union (EU). In the EU, ongoing reductions in cattle supply, combined with steady local and international demand, are expected to sustain bullish price trends.

- Poultry: Brazil’s poultry exports are expected to continue growing, especially to high-standard markets like the EU, supported by strong health controls and traceability. This trend is expected to keep prices elevated through mid-2025. Meanwhile, Ukraine’s release of unused quotas to the EU may briefly ease supply and lower prices. However, overall EU poultry prices are likely to stay high due to steady demand and costly protein alternatives like beef.

- Pork: Brazilian pork exports are expected to maintain upward momentum in the coming months, driven by new market access, better logistics, and ongoing sanitary negotiations. This is likely to keep prices high amid strong global demand. In the EU, rising beef and poultry prices are boosting pork demand, likely pushing pork prices upward in the coming months.

- Lamb: New Zealand lamb export prices are expected to remain firm in the coming months, driven by tightening supply and strong global demand, especially from the EU. Meanwhile, Australian lamb prices are projected to rise moderately, supported by continued strong demand from China and Southeast Asia.