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May Outlook Report - Nuts and Oils
Walnut Kernel
India
Refined Sunflower Oil
Sudan
Market Intelligence Analytics Team, Theo Venter
Published Apr 27, 2023
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•The peanut market in India is expected to follow a bullish trend in May due to heavy rains affecting the quality of the Rabi crop, and the potential for increased short-term demand from China due to the conflict in Sudan. Brazilian prices are expected to increase slightly in the short term, as poor outlooks in major exporters like Sudan and Argentina are offset by record domestic production. Meanwhile, Sudan's civil war has led to a halt in all peanut exports, which will impact the global market as it is the globe’s third-largest exporter.
•The almond market in Spain has built in a risk premium for the US crop as well as domestic production. Prices may continue to increase, but global supplies will limit the extent of the increase. In the US, heavy rains have created uncertainty for the 2023 almond crop, with better water availability but potential pollination issues. The Middle East and Africa have seen a surge in demand for almonds, with exports reaching record highs in March due to preparations for Ramadan.
•Italy's walnut prices remained stable in April, but consumer demand has not shown signs of recovery, and imports have stayed low. Many questions hang over European walnut production, as the warm winter and drought in key growing regions could lead to a decrease in production. US walnuts are in the blooming and pollination phase and growing conditions are mostly favorable. Poor export demand for US walnuts means supply and demand could take several more seasons to rebalance. Chile's walnut harvest is underway, and demand remains strong for their high-quality nuts.
•Hazelnut prices in Italy continued sideways in April, as buyers were only interested when prices dipped. Weak demand in Europe, provides little opportunity for a price increase. Turkiye's hazelnut market saw very little activity in April due to upcoming elections. Possible scenarios amidst the elections are panic selling or the creation of a short-term supply crunch.
•Weak demand and reduced imports from India led to a decline in palm oil prices in April, with buyers turning to alternative edible oils such as sunflower and soybean due to their lower prices.
•EU olive oil prices remained bullish due to stable non-EU production and a significant decrease in EU olive oil production. Added pressure came from the lack of rain in Spain leading to further price increases.
•The rapeseed market has seen a 5% MoM decline in prices due to robust fundamental activity. Despite expectations of a bumper harvest and a predicted decline in prices of rapeseed oil in H2-2023, there is possible upside risk from the drought-stricken Argentine soybean crop.
•Sunflower oil prices pushed down to test the $1,000/mt support line in April, reflecting the bearish undertones due to a good crop progress in the EU and Ukraine.
•The almond market in Spain has built in a risk premium for the US crop as well as domestic production. Prices may continue to increase, but global supplies will limit the extent of the increase. In the US, heavy rains have created uncertainty for the 2023 almond crop, with better water availability but potential pollination issues. The Middle East and Africa have seen a surge in demand for almonds, with exports reaching record highs in March due to preparations for Ramadan.
•Italy's walnut prices remained stable in April, but consumer demand has not shown signs of recovery, and imports have stayed low. Many questions hang over European walnut production, as the warm winter and drought in key growing regions could lead to a decrease in production. US walnuts are in the blooming and pollination phase and growing conditions are mostly favorable. Poor export demand for US walnuts means supply and demand could take several more seasons to rebalance. Chile's walnut harvest is underway, and demand remains strong for their high-quality nuts.
•Hazelnut prices in Italy continued sideways in April, as buyers were only interested when prices dipped. Weak demand in Europe, provides little opportunity for a price increase. Turkiye's hazelnut market saw very little activity in April due to upcoming elections. Possible scenarios amidst the elections are panic selling or the creation of a short-term supply crunch.
•Weak demand and reduced imports from India led to a decline in palm oil prices in April, with buyers turning to alternative edible oils such as sunflower and soybean due to their lower prices.
•EU olive oil prices remained bullish due to stable non-EU production and a significant decrease in EU olive oil production. Added pressure came from the lack of rain in Spain leading to further price increases.
•The rapeseed market has seen a 5% MoM decline in prices due to robust fundamental activity. Despite expectations of a bumper harvest and a predicted decline in prices of rapeseed oil in H2-2023, there is possible upside risk from the drought-stricken Argentine soybean crop.
•Sunflower oil prices pushed down to test the $1,000/mt support line in April, reflecting the bearish undertones due to a good crop progress in the EU and Ukraine.
Table of contents
Part I: Key Indicators
Part II: Nuts
Peanuts
Almonds
Walnuts
Hazelnuts
Part III: Oils
Palm Oil
Olive Oil
Rapeseed Oil
Sunflower Oil
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