An increase in the forecast for the rapeseed harvest in the EU increases the pressure on global prices

Published 2023년 10월 4일

Tridge summary

Strategie Grains has increased its forecast for rapeseed production in the EU for the 2023/24 marketing year due to better than expected harvests in several countries. However, the forecast for sunflower and soybean production in the EU has been reduced. Cheap Ukrainian rapeseed is putting pressure on European prices, but the pace of imports has decreased due to a ban on supplies to neighboring EU countries and forecasts of unfavorable conditions for rapeseed development in Ukraine.

Disclaimer:The above summary was generated by Tridge's proprietary AI model for informational purposes.

Original content

Strategie Grains experts increased the forecast of rapeseed production in the EU in 2023/24 MY by 0.6 million tons compared to previous estimates from 18.9 to 19.5 million tons (19.4 million tons in 2022/23 MY) due to better, than expected to harvests in Romania, Germany, Spain, Italy and the Baltic states. At the same time, the forecast for sunflower production in the EU in 2023/24 was reduced by 0.2 to 10.1 million tons (9.3 million tons last year), and for soybeans to 2.9 million tons (2.5 million tons last year). On the Paris MATIF, November rapeseed futures for September traded in the range of €440-445/t and rose 1% since Monday to €447.25/t or $468/t (-5.1% for the month). The euro's decline against the dollar to €1.046/$ is supporting euro prices, but overall declines in Canadian canola and US soybean prices are adding pressure to canola quotes. Although they may soon be supported by unfavorable conditions for the development of rapeseed crops in Ukraine. November canola ...

Source: Graintrade