Analysis of global crop prices by August 2: Export duty on wheat is at a minimum

Published Aug 3, 2024

Tridge summary

Russia's agricultural market is experiencing price fluctuations due to various factors. The reduction of wheat export duty to a historic low has led to an increase in wheat prices, despite the strong ruble exchange rate. The market is expecting further price hikes due to lower yields in Ukraine and Russia. Creameries are preparing for higher sunflower prices due to poor harvest prospects in the European Union. The soybean market is expected to become a limiting factor with high sowing prospects and low liquidity. Corn prices are high due to limited free volumes and interest from Iran and Turkey. Sunflower prices in Russia are rising, despite adequate raw material supplies, due to pessimistic harvest estimates and a decrease in supply from creameries.

Disclaimer: The above summary was generated by Tridge's proprietary AI model for informational purposes.

Original content

Reducing the export duty on wheat to a historically low level - less than 500 rubles. per ton – had a positive impact on the grain market. Intermediate harvest results, namely lower yields, give hope for further price increases. Creameries are pessimistic about the supply of sunflower from the new crop and are ready for further price increases. The soybean market is still low in liquidity, but record high sowing and prospects for gross harvest may become limiting factors. WHEAT Wheat 5th grade Wheat 4th grade Wheat 3rd grade World market Factors leading to higher prices: Decrease in wheat and barley yields in Ukraine and Russia, according to preliminary estimates, by 5-10% relative to 2023. Factors leading to price reductions: No significant factors noted. Russian market Factors leading to rising prices: The wait-and-see attitude of farmers regarding the sale of wheat and barley in the hope of rising prices. Reducing the export duty on wheat to the minimum level - 444 rubles per ...

Source: Zol