Analysis of crop prices as of September 29 in Russia

Updated Sep 30, 2023
WHEAT World market Factors leading to higher prices: Morocco's State Agency for Grains (ONICL) announced a subsidy for the import of 2 million tons of wheat from October 1 to December 31, 2023. According to StoneX forecasts, in the 2023/24 season, wheat production in Australia will decrease to 24 million tons (-40% compared to the 2022/23 season). Refinitiv Commodities Research also cut its forecast for Australian wheat production by 2.2 million tons to 24.8 million tons (39.7 million tons in the 2022/23 season). Downward adjustments are due to dry weather conditions. According to forecasts from the Ministry of Agriculture of Argentina, the area under wheat in the 2023/24 season will be reduced to 5.6 million hectares (-300 thousand hectares compared to the same period last year).
Factors leading to a decrease in prices: A general decrease in demand from grain importers against the backdrop of fairly high stocks from last season and due to active purchases in July-August. This week, the Egyptian State Agency for Food Procurement (GASC) again purchased 170 thousand tons of Romanian and Bulgarian wheat. Russian offers were uncompetitive, despite a price reduction from $270 to $260 per ton. Russian market Factors leading to price increases: No significant factors noted. Factors leading to lower prices: Kazakhstan, in accordance with the order of the Ministry of Agriculture of the Republic No. 337 dated September 25, 2023, introduced a ban on the import of wheat by road and rail for a period of six months. The exception is deliveries to licensed enterprises. Decrease in purchase prices due to congestion at ports and low demand from exporters. Sufficient supplies of wheat from domestic processors. Summary: Based on the results of this week, exporter purchase ...
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