Global arable market report for 18 November 2024

Published Nov 18, 2024

Tridge summary

The article provides an overview of the global agricultural market, focusing on the impact of the US dollar's strength, favorable weather conditions, and steady wheat exports on prices. It discusses the pressure on wheat prices due to potential weather risks in the Black Sea region, but notes stability in the short term due to competitive US export prices and firm ethanol production. The wider grains complex, particularly barley prices, is also addressed, with a decline in US wheat markets noted. Additionally, the article covers the impact of policy changes under the Trump administration on soybean and rapeseed prices, reporting an increase in EU rapeseed imports despite weakness in the vegetable oil complex. Finally, it mentions a decrease in future soybean import projections for China, improved planting conditions in South America, and a slight decrease in the projected area planted with winter rapeseed in Germany for the 2025 crop.

Disclaimer:The above summary was generated by Tridge's proprietary AI model for informational purposes.

Original content

A strong US dollar, steady wheat exports and forecasts of favourable weather in parts of the Northern Hemisphere could pressure prices short term. However, weather risks for winter wheat crops in the Black Sea could keep prices steady longer term. Competitive US export prices and firm ethanol production in the US provide some stability in the near-term, while comfortable global supply forecasts limit price rises long term. The wider grains complex continues to drive barley prices, with weak demand from major importers limiting any gains. US wheat markets fell significantly last week (Friday – Friday). Chicago wheat futures (Dec-24) ended down 6.3%. The cereals complex was pressured by a stronger US dollar, forecasts of favourable weather in key growing regions such as the US and western Europe, and the competitiveness of Black Sea exports. US Dollar Index futures (Dec-24) closed higher each day last week, putting pressure on commodity markets, especially for wheat, with US export ...

Source: Ahdb