Cattle supply strong, but herd is easing

The report also notes that the conflict involving Iran has added a layer of uncertainty to the 2026 outlook. While it is too early to assess the full implications for the cattle sector, any prolonged disruption could affect the industry’s operating environment through higher input costs, freight pressure and broader supply chain risks. MLA notes these potential impacts were not incorporated into the forecast, as the conflict was in its early stages when the projections were finalised. MLA forecasts the national herd at 30.783 million head in 2026, down 1% year-on-year (YoY) but still historically large. This reflects a cattle cycle that has remained more resilient than many expected, supported by favourable northern seasonal conditions, productivity gains, herd composition and the evolving dynamics of production systems. Slaughter lifts while herd edges lower Supported by strong global demand and continued cattle availability – particularly from northern regions – cattle slaughter ...