China will increase its purchase of Vietnamese pepper after Tet. Why is there this forecast and on what basis?

Published 2025년 1월 16일

Tridge summary

The Vietnam Pepper and Spice Association (VPSA) predicted a global pepper production decrease of around 4% in 2024, primarily due to Brazil and Vietnam. FOB prices for pepper have risen significantly. The International Pepper Community (IPC) anticipates further decreases in 2025 due to competing crop economics, climate change, and increased production costs. Vietnam's production is expected to decline by 5.1% in 2024, but some areas have seen increased production due to favorable weather and higher prices. China, a major importer, has reduced its imports from Vietnam but may increase purchases again due to low inventories.

Disclaimer:The above summary was generated by Tridge's proprietary AI model for informational purposes.

Original content

On January 16, the Vietnam Pepper and Spice Association (VPSA) held its 2024 annual conference in Ho Chi Minh City. According to the International Pepper Community (IPC), global pepper output in 2024 will decrease by about 4% (22,000 tons) compared to 2023, to only 558,000 tons. This decrease in pepper volume mainly comes from Brazil and Vietnam. Pepper export prices (FOB prices) of countries increased by about 45% for black pepper and increased by about 34% for white pepper compared to the previous year. IPC forecasts that global pepper output in 2025 will continue to decrease compared to 2024. The main reason is that pepper is no longer the main crop of many farmers, especially in the context of more competitive economic value of other crops. In addition, climate change with extreme weather events has reduced productivity, while the cost of maintaining pepper production has increased. Domestically, VPSA said that production in some places was affected by climate change. ...

Source: Danviet