Coffee: Japanese stocks decline but consumption approaches the 2022/23 levels

Current Japanese stock data, released by the JCA, indicate a 3.3% reduction between May and July, with the volume falling to 2.42 M scs. Although stocks are at the same levels as 22/23 for that period, they are still below the historical values of 2.8 M scs. According to Laleska Moda, Coffee analyst at Hedgepoint Global Markets, “although lower stocks are a factor supporting prices, apparent demand in the Asian country has been decreasing since 2022, especially between 2022 and 2023. However, apparent consumption for the 23/24 season (Oct/23-Jun/24) has stabilized, with an accumulated volume to date similar to 22/23, around 4.7 M scs. Given this scenario, we will maintain our initial projection of total demand from Japan at around 6.2 M scs, practically stable compared to 22/23”. On the other hand, it is important to monitor the monthly performance of consumption in the second half of 2024 for estimates regarding 24/25, since high coffee prices may still have a negative effect on ...