Coffee: Japanese stocks decline but consumption approaches the 2022/23 levels

Published Sep 17, 2024

Tridge summary

Japanese stock data shows a 3.3% reduction between May and July, with volumes at the same level as the 22/23 season but below historical averages. However, demand for the 23/24 season has stabilized. Prices are supported by concerns on the supply side, especially in Vietnam, where high temperatures and drought have affected production. Brazil has seen an increase in its share of the global market, particularly with conilon. Factors such as climate uncertainties and weather conditions in Brazil continue to increase market risk.

Disclaimer:The above summary was generated by Tridge's proprietary AI model for informational purposes.

Original content

Current Japanese stock data, released by the JCA, indicate a 3.3% reduction between May and July, with the volume falling to 2.42 M scs. Although stocks are at the same levels as 22/23 for that period, they are still below the historical values of 2.8 M scs. According to Laleska Moda, Coffee analyst at Hedgepoint Global Markets, “although lower stocks are a factor supporting prices, apparent demand in the Asian country has been decreasing since 2022, especially between 2022 and 2023. However, apparent consumption for the 23/24 season (Oct/23-Jun/24) has stabilized, with an accumulated volume to date similar to 22/23, around 4.7 M scs. Given this scenario, we will maintain our initial projection of total demand from Japan at around 6.2 M scs, practically stable compared to 22/23”. On the other hand, it is important to monitor the monthly performance of consumption in the second half of 2024 for estimates regarding 24/25, since high coffee prices may still have a negative effect on ...

Source: NoticiasAgricolas