Tridge summary
The supply and demand of Korean beef is not serious. As the oversupply of Hanwoo beef began in earnest, the downward trend in prices is expected to continue.
According to observations by the Korea Rural Economic Institute in March, the number of breeding animals this year is expected to be 3.57 million, a record high. As a result, the number of slaughtered animals is expected to increase by 8.5% year-on-year and 21.8% year-on-year to around 940,000, and it is expected to further increase to about 1 million next year.
Due to an increase in the number of slaughtered animals and a decrease in demand, the wholesale price of Korean beef (geosewoo), which exceeded 20,000 won per kg last year, fell sharply to 16,500-17,500 won in the first and second quarters, and rose slightly to 17,000-10,000 won in the third quarter. It is expected to fall back to 16,500-17,500 won in the fourth quarter after showing around 8,000 won.
According to this prospect, the supply and demand level in the Korean beef supply and demand control manual has been raised from the alert level to the 'serious level'. The serious stage is the stage in which farm households lose income due to the supply-demand imbalance. In fact, the wholesale price of Hanwoo beef fell 16.4% year-on-year to 17,672 won per kg in January, and rose slightly to 18,353 won in February due to large-scale consumption promotion events in February, but this figure also fell 11.2% year-on-year. .
In order to stabilize the Korean beef market, the current overflowing supply must be normalized above all else. The most realistic way to achieve this is for farms to refrain from stocking calves themselves, and to proactively cull low-capacity cows.
The government plans to encourage farmers to participate autonomously and reduce 140,000 cows by the first half of next year. As a result of the reception from the first half of 2021 to the present, 90,000 have participated. Participating farms are supported with 200,000 won for shipment incentives. I shouldn't be comfortable thinking that I'll be fine. Armed with the idea that you have to start with yourself, you will be able to overcome the current crisis situation. Without everyone's participation, the Korean beef market is far from stable.