Ethanol from the USA is expected to maintain an advantage over Brazil in Europe, despite the agreement with the EU.

The competitiveness of Brazilian ethanol in the international market, particularly in Europe, is expected to remain limited compared to U.S. ethanol, according to a report by Datagro. The document cites structural differences in costs, logistics, and exchange rates. The analysis highlights that arbitrage – an indicator that measures the profitability of exports by comparing the selling price at the destination with all logistics, tax, and financial costs – continues to be more favorable to the United States than to Brazil. Currently, the operation of shipping U.S. ethanol to Europe presents a positive margin of 39.3%, while Brazilian ethanol reaches 18.1%. Starting in June, with the stabilization of prices in the European market, the scenario tends to worsen for the national product: the arbitrage is expected to become negative, averaging -4.7%, indicating economic unfeasibility of exports, while U.S. ethanol will still maintain a positive margin close to 8.1%. The U.S. advance in ...