Finance: questions in the market about how long the truce in the Middle East will last

After back-and-forth negotiations and last-minute talks by Pakistan and China, a truce was reached in the Middle East conflict. The military might of the United States was undeniable, but Iran's resistance brought the situation to a very costly stalemate in economic and political terms for Trump. Will this be a lasting pause, or a relief for a couple of weeks? For now, the relief has boosted the S&P 500 by 3.6% since the announcement. The effects on commodities The reaction to the ceasefire was immediate: portfolios shifted back to risky assets, while the prices of the involved commodities (energy, aluminum, urea, grains, among others) cut the increases. Even in a scenario of lower tension, we project that the prices will not return to pre-war levels for an extended period. A relevant point for Argentina's trade balance, which will perceive the flows of the main harvest until July. In this window, 50% of agricultural exports are liquidated, which this year would amount to around ...