One discussion taking place in the global sugar market is that India may export more than previously anticipated, according to analysis by hEDGEpoint. “In this report, we intend to discuss what an export between 5Mt and 7Mt could mean for global trade flows and, of course, for India's ending stocks”, says the entity. “When it comes to 23/24, we are being conservative: the shift to ethanol should increase and thus reduce the total amount of raw material available to teenagers. In addition, the formation of El-Niño may result in a lower productivity recovery. Thus, our preliminary view is that total supply should remain below 34Mt in the next crop. Having clarified the basic assumptions for production, let's explore what happens to India's ending stocks depending on its export numbers, ceteris paribus. Given that the Indian government generally tries to maintain a final stock of at least 3 months of consumption, it is easy to see that even with 7Mt, 6Mt or even 5Mt of exports it ...
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