UK: Marginal growth expected in Great Britain milk production for the upcoming season

Cow Milk

Dairy

United Kingdom

Published Mar 24, 2023

Tridge summary

GB milk production for the 2023/24 season is forecast to reach 12.46bn litres, 0.5% more than the current milk year, according to our March forecast update. The current season is expected to finish at 12.39bn litres, up by 0.2%. The improvement in yields seen since September 2022 has boosted the current season total, which was running behind throughout the first half of the season by around 1-2%.

Original content

The improvements in milk production in the second half of the 2022/23 season were predominantly driven by higher yields, encouraged by the high milk prices paid through the winter months. Cow numbers were relatively stable, with the size of the GB milking herd in January 2023 only 0.8% lower than a year earlier. This is the smallest annual decline since January 2018, according to data from BCMS. At the latest Milk Forecasting Forum, it was generally agreed that the current yields were likely to continue through the spring period. However, there are some risks to production in the second half of the season when working capital requirements increase against a backdrop of declining milk prices. In general, inflation in key input costs has slowed in recent months, although prices for fuel, fertiliser and feed remain high in historic terms. With announced cuts to milk prices in the first three months of the year reaching up to 6.45ppl, and further cuts expected in the lead up to the ...

Source: Ahdb