Brazil needs stronger Chinese demand to balance supply growth, according to Rabobank

Published Feb 2, 2023

Tridge summary

Rabobank's Pork Quarterly - Q1 2023 report forecasts a decrease in pork demand in the first quarter of 2023, which is expected to impact supply. Production increased by 1.8% in the third quarter of 2022 and 4.3% year-over-year. With lower feed prices, pork production is projected to increase by 4% to 5% in 2023, despite a decrease in the first semester. China continues to be the primary destination for Brazilian pork exports, accounting for approximately 42% of the total volume sold. Rabobank anticipates a 2% increase in export volumes in 2023, though the COVID-19 situation in China could impact import potential.

Disclaimer:The above summary was generated by Tridge's proprietary AI model for informational purposes.

Original content

According to Rabobank's Pork Quarterly - Q1 2023 report, the seasonal drop in pork demand is expected to impact supply in the first quarter of 2023 Recent data show that production in the third quarter of 2022 followed a seasonally upward trend, with an increase of 1.8% compared to the second quarter of 2022 and 4.3% compared to the previous year. The bank claims that lower feed prices supported producer margins during this period. In the fourth quarter of 2022, higher live hog prices supported pork demand. However, the unusually cold weather in the Center-South region negatively impacted travel and group meetings and, in turn, affected consumption. Fall in feed price improves production marginSource: Rabobank Analysts project pork production in 2023 to increase 4% to 5% year-over-year. For the first semester, the bank foresees that pork production will decrease in relation to the previous quarter. The first quarter usually marks the seasonal low of domestic demand (school ...

Source: Suinoculturaindustrial