Against the backdrop of high U.S. import tariffs on Vietnam, the cashew trade flow is accelerating its shift towards China. Meanwhile, European market demand for Vietnamese cashews has returned to normal.
Indian cashew enterprises forced to halt production
India, a major cashew consumer accounting for 31% of global consumption, has seen processing companies in Andhra Pradesh collectively suspend operations for two weeks, according to The Times of India. This is due to low cashew kernel prices and weak domestic demand, leaving many workers unpaid. Domestic cashew kernel prices have plummeted by 70 rupees per kilogram, severely impacting local processors. In contrast, Indian cashew export prices have continuously risen since February, with W320 kernel quotations reaching a three-year high for the same period.
Vietnamese cashew exports to the U.S. drop 20%, surge over 40% to China
Vietnamese processors remain caught in the uncertainty of U.S. tariff policies. Currently facing a 46% import tariff, recent Bloomberg reports of an imminent trade agreement potentially reducing tariffs to 20-25% have stirred market excitement. These policy fluctuations have significantly impacted exports—customs data shows May cashew exports to the U.S. declined 10% year-on-year to 17,360 tons, while export value paradoxically increased 15% to $117.6 million. In the first five months of 2025, total U.S. cashew exports plunged 22% to 59,750 tons, but total export value remained essentially unchanged at $406.9 million.
China has replaced the U.S. as Vietnam's largest cashew export market. In May, exports to China surged 44% year-on-year to 24,620 tons, with export value skyrocketing 67% to $156.4 million. From January to May 2025, cumulative cashew exports to China reached 65,970 tons, valued at $414.5 million—a 22% increase in volume and 41% increase in value.
In the first five months of 2025, Vietnam's total cashew exports were 276,760 tons, valued at $1.9 billion. While export volume declined 5% year-on-year, total export value paradoxically grew 19