The lower rainfall and high temperatures in 2025 have affected the quality of sugarcane, resulting in a noticeable water deficit.

According to a report by G1, specifically, the months of January, February, and March saw a shortage of rainfall and higher temperatures, which affected the quality of sugarcane for the 2024/25 harvest season, which was harvested in April. The sprouting of the new sugarcane season was also damaged by the adverse weather conditions, according to agricultural meteorologist Felipe from the Department of Biosystems Engineering at the University of São Paulo. "Sugarcane will feel the threat of water more noticeably, and this is closely related to the yield capacity of the plants. Therefore, it is certain that the first few months of this year—the traditional rainy season—did indeed affect the sugarcane yield for this season's harvest." On the other hand, the months known for their cold weather did indeed get colder. Experts pointed out that the temperature at the root of the plants could be 4°C lower than the surface temperature, increasing the likelihood of frost formation. In other words, sugar cane production not only suffered from water stress but also from heat stress. "Sugarcane is a crop sensitive to cold and frost. Therefore, it is certain that the regrowth buds of sugarcane in multiple regions were affected by frost, and this will also impact the harvest of the next sugarcane season," he said. Rainfall in September and October was lower than expected. Although November saw higher-than-average rainfall, it was almost entirely concentrated in the first day of the month. Felipe explained that this form of rainfall is not beneficial for sugarcane cultivation because a significant portion of the water cannot be absorbed by the soil and is instead drained away, continuing the situation of water deficit. "We already have a water problem, although it is not very severe, but it does exist. There is no indication that the next few months will see higher rainfall, maintaining generally normal levels, and there may be natural variations, meaning that there may be more months with rainfall slightly below the average." He pointed out that if this forecast comes true, it will lead to a slightly lower-than-expected sugarcane yield for the next season. Industry data The Sugarcane Industry Union of Brazil pointed out that in the first half of November, the processing volume in the Central-South region was 18.76 million tons, while for the same period in the 2024/2025 harvest season, it was 16.41 million tons. "As of November 16, the cumulative processing volume for the 2025/2026 harvest season was 576.25 million tons, which is a decrease of 1.26% compared to the same period in the previous harvest season," the industry representative agency added. "In the first half of November, 42 production units ended their crushing; since the start of this harvest season, 120 units have completed processing, compared to 70 units in the same period last season." "But the most important thing is to understand the weather conditions in order to make decisions. Sometimes the situation is not the best, and it may even deviate from expectations. Therefore, mastering information, investing in weather stations, investing in weather monitoring systems, using weather forecasts, using climate trends, and the overall climate picture are all crucial for adjusting management strategies," the expert said.