There is room for an upward adjustment of South Africa maize production estimates

Published 2021년 3월 26일

Tridge summary

South Africa's Crop Estimates Committee has increased its forecast for 2020/21 summer grain and oilseeds production by 1% to 18.7 million tonnes, with significant increases in maize, soybeans, and sorghum harvests. Despite a decrease in sunflower seed, dry bean, and groundnut production estimates, the overall summer crop production estimate has been revised upwards. The large maize harvest could lead to lower prices, especially with expected increases in production across Southern Africa. However, South Africa may continue to depend on imports of soybean meal to meet poultry sector demand. The optimistic production estimates and favourable rainfall are expected to contribute to domestic food price inflation in 2021.

Disclaimer:The above summary was generated by Tridge's proprietary AI model for informational purposes.

Original content

South Africa’s Crop Estimates Committee mildly lifted its forecast for 2020/21 summer grain and oilseeds production from last month by 1% to 18,7 million tonnes (this compared with 17,6 million tonnes in 2019/20 production season). The upward adjustments were mainly on maize, soybeans and sorghum, whereas sunflower seed, dry bean and groundnut production estimates were revised down from the previous month. Nevertheless, the downward adjustments were overshadowed by the upward adjustments, hence on a net basis, the summer crop production estimate is up from last month. If we zoom into significant crops, the 2020/21 maize, soybean and sunflower seed harvests are forecast at 15,9 million tonnes (up 4% y/y, and second-largest harvest on record — see chart), 1,9 million tonnes (up 39% y/y, a record harvest), and 712 940 tonnes (down 12% y/y), respectively. The maize production estimate is slightly below our estimated 16,7 million tonnes, and the Bureau for Food and Agricultural ...

Source: Farmingportal