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There is room for an upward adjustment of South Africa maize production estimates

Updated Mar 26, 2021
Nevertheless, the downward adjustments were overshadowed by the upward adjustments, hence on a net basis, the summer crop production estimate is up from last month. If we zoom into significant crops, the 2020/21 maize, soybean and sunflower seed harvests are forecast at 15,9 million tonnes (up 4% y/y, and second-largest harvest on record — see chart), 1,9 million tonnes (up 39% y/y, a record harvest), and 712 940 tonnes (down 12% y/y), respectively. The maize production estimate is slightly below our estimated 16,7 million tonnes, and the Bureau for Food and Agricultural Policy’s estimated 17,0 million tonnes. Considering the optimistic yield estimates we received from farmers on the ground and observations in places we have been in, we are inclined to think that there is room for the Crop Estimates Committee to raise its maize production estimates further coming months. Thus, we are not adjusting our view for now from our current estimate of 16,7 million tonnes. The current maize ...
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