INC data shows that global walnut production is expected to rebound in the 2025/26 crop year, slightly increasing by 6% to 2.767 million tons compared to the 2024/25 crop year, with global supply volume growing marginally by 4% to 2.866 million tons.
China's production remains stable
China's in-shell walnut production is expected to remain unchanged at 1.55 million tons. Industry sources reveal that Yunnan Province's planting area will reach 2.87 million hectares, with Xinjiang's planting area around 42,470 hectares. Despite expanded planting scale, low fruit setting rates will constrain production growth, and if weather conditions are favorable, this season's production will remain stable. Weather factors will also significantly impact walnut maturation and harvest quality. Notably, the new season's walnut kernels are expected to have better fullness and grain specifications, with hopes of improving the small fruit rate.
Production increases in the US and Chile
The California Walnut Commission indicates an optimistic outlook this season. Currently, water resources are abundant, spring temperatures are ideal, and flowering and sprouting conditions are good. With continued favorable weather, both yield and quality are expected to be optimal, with production anticipated to grow 14% from the previous season to 616,000 tons.
After experiencing reduced production in 2024, Chile is expected to see a 25% production rebound this season, rising to 168,000 tons. Local media reports suggest suppliers might benefit from Trump-era tariff policies, with Mexico potentially turning to Chile for alternative US product sources. Although future negotiations among the US, Canada, and Mexico remain uncertain, walnuts and almonds can be exempted from the 25% punitive tariffs under the USMCA.
Additionally, based on the temporary tariff reduction agreement between the US and China: the US will reduce additional tariffs on Chinese products from 145% to 30% starting in April, while China will lower its tariffs on US imported goods from 125% to 10%.