Production and Exports of Chilean Avocados Expected to Increase for the 2021/2022 Season

Published 2022년 3월 22일

Predictions for the 2021/2022 Chilean avocado season state production will reach 220,000 tons, representing a 57% increase from the 2020/2021 season. The increase in production has caused a 41.8% price drop of Chilean avocados, triggering an export increase. From the start of the 2021/2022 season until mid-March, Chilean avocado exports reached 84,325 tons, representing a 69.1% increase from the same period in the 2020/2021 season. It is expected that exports will remain stable for the rest of the season.

The Chilean Avocado Committee’s predictions for the 2021/2022 Chilean avocado season stated that production will reach 220,000 tons, representing a 57% increase from the 2020/2021 season, when production only reached 140,000 tons due to drought and early frosts. Predictions for this season take into account good weather, successful setting of the fruit, and higher workforce availability.

Source: USDA

The production increase has not been all positive for Chilean avocado producers. The significant increase in production is causing a drop in the price of Chilean avocados. Since March 2021, the price of fresh Chilean avocados has decreased by 41.8% YoY, reaching a value of USD 4.08 per kg. The price drop triggers exports but leaves local producers with small margins as production and freight costs have increased.

Forecasts also state that domestic consumption of Chilean avocados will reach 100,000 tons, which is 46% of domestic production, and the remaining supply will be exported. During the 2020/2021 season, Chilean avocado exports reached 74,041, having as main export destinations Western Europe with a 75% export market share, South America with a 13.5% export market share, and Oceania with a 3.4% market share. So far, this 2021/2022 season's main export destinations include Western Europe with a 68.9% export market share, South America with a 15.4% export market share, and Asia with an 8.8% market share.

According to ODEPA, the Chilean Office of Agricultural Studies and Policies, from the start of the 2021/2022 season in August 2021 until mid-March, Chile exported 84,325 tons of avocado. The current exports represent a 69.1% increase from the same period in the 2020/2021 season, where exports reached 49,856 tons. Predictions state that if exports remain stable for the rest of this season, they will surpass 118,000 tons. Exports are not expected to be affected by the tensions in Russia and Ukraine as Chilean avocado exports to Russia and Ukraine represent less than 0.5% of all exports.