The 2021/22 Australian Canola Crop Is Forecast To Increase to 6.3 Million MT

Published Jun 21, 2022

Canola is Australia's main oilseed crop, grown around its greenbelt areas. Over the last 10 years, Australia has been recording some big production numbers. Australia’s 2021-22 crop is forecasted to increase 40% to 6.3 million mt, the largest crop on record and 80% above the 10-year average.

Canola is Australia's main oilseed crop, grown around its greenbelt areas which record the highest rainfall in a year. New South Wales has the highest concentration of canola farms with areas stretching from south-western to south-eastern Australia, huge producing areas..

Over the last 10 years, Australia has been recording some big production numbers: production in the 2012-13 marketing year was 4.1 million mt before dropping 22% to an average production of 3.3 million mt the following years. In the 2016-17 crop season, canola production recorded a large YoY increase to 4.3 million mt.

In the 2020-21 season, crop output was 4.5 million which was a record crop. Canola’s dominance in the oilseeds market is expected again in the 2021-22 season. The 2021-22 crop is forecasted to increase 40% to 6.3 million mt. It is the largest crop on record and 80% above the 10-year average of 3.5 million mt.

On average, over the past 5 years, 2.4 million mt of the Australian crop has been exported. A rise in production has always been accompanied by a rise in exports so we expect exports to the rest of the world to go up.

The start of the season saw increased planting on the back of a well above average rainfall prevailing in most canola-growing areas, bar south Australia which experienced a dry spell at the start of the season. The weather has since remained good with no serious adverse conditions auguring well for the canola crop.

According to the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource and Science (ABARES) June crop report, a well above mean rainfall during the autumn has led to an outstanding cropping season. Although this rainfall pattern led to some flooding and crop damage, the extent of the losses wasn’t significant to impact national volumes.

Also, the Australian canola crop is mostly Genetically Modified (GM). This season saw strong seeding of GMs which are more resistant to pests and diseases. Yields are thus expected to be higher. The higher Australian crop if realised would go miles to offset the losses in global supply should Ukraine be unable to supply enough into the market.

Given the tightness of the global supply and demand picture amid the growing demand from the biodiesel sector, any gains in oilseeds output should be a relief to the global supply and demand balance.