W1 Wheat Update: EU Soft Wheat Production Forecast Drops for 204/25 Season; India Projects Record Wheat Production of 114 MMT for 2023/24 MY

EU Soft Wheat Production Outlook Dips for 2024/25 Season

The European Union's (EU) soft wheat production forecast for the 2024/25 agricultural season, beginning on July 1, has been reduced to 125.6 million metric tons (mmt), over 2 mmt lower than the current 2023/24 season. The downward adjustment is attributed to lower-than-expected wheat acreage in France due to excessive rainfall, severely impeding fieldwork.

India Eyes Record Wheat Production of 114 MMT in 2023/24 MY

India's wheat production is projected to reach a new record of 114 mmt in the current 2023/24 marketing year (MY), assuming normal weather conditions, according to a senior food ministry official. The ongoing sowing of wheat, the primary Rabi (winter) crop, is in its final stages and is expected to conclude in W2. As of the previous week, wheat had been planted in 3.21 million hectares (ha), signaling a potential rise from the previous record of 110.55 mmt in 2022/23 MY.

India's Wheat Stocks Expected to Exceed Buffer Norm on April 1

India's wheat inventories are expected to remain above the buffer norm on April 1 despite ongoing sales from state reserves. As of January 1, the country's wheat stocks in state warehouses reached 16.47 mmt, the lowest since 2017. The government's open market sale scheme (OMSS) has helped stabilize prices, with 5.8 mmt sold to bulk buyers since June 1, preventing stocks from falling below the buffer norm. Despite the ban on exports in 2022 and lower-than-estimated production, local wheat prices remain high.

Azerbaijan Extends Tax Exemption on Wheat Imports, Flour, and Bread Sales Until 2027

In Azerbaijan, the import and sale of wheat, along with the production and sale of wheat flour and bread, will continue to be exempt from taxation for an additional three years. The amendment to the Tax Code extends the tax exemption until January 1, 2027. This exemption has been in effect since January 1, 2017, and it has been extended twice before this latest extension.

Ukraine's Wheat Exports Dip in Early 2023/24 MY

Ukraine's cereals and legumes export from July 1 to January 2 of the 2023/24 MY reached 18.4 mmt, including wheat exports of 7.59 mmt. In comparison, during the same period in the 2022/23 MY, Ukraine exported 22.76 mmt of cereals and legumes, encompassing substantial quantities of wheat, barley, rye, and corn. Moreover, Ukraine exported 1 thousand metric tons (mt) of wheat in the first two days of Jan-24.

Russia Raises Wheat Export Tariffs to USD 46.43/MT from January 11 to 16

From January 11 to 16, Russia's wheat export tariffs will increase to USD 46.43/mt, up from the previous tariff of USD 43.02/mt, which was in effect from December 27 to January 10. The new export duty is calculated based on an indicative price of USD 250/mt for wheat.